We're betting an over prop on a guy who had zero catches in a 59 point Bears blowout win last week? That's right we are! Yes, somehow the Bears' talented young TE who tore up the second half of last year went without a catch in Week 1. Because CHI faces an attacking Brian Flores defense this week we expect Caleb to look to his trusted outlet guys - and Loveland tops the list. We're also bolstered by the fact that GB TEs Tucker Kraft and Jonnu Smith combined for a gaudy 5 catch for 115 yard tally last week vs MIN. OVER.
Post-bet analysis: LOSS This bet was a poster child for this low-scoring week. Fresh of their 59 point performance in Week 1, the Bears could only scrape out a FG on 163 passing yards. Yes, Caleb got hurt - but CHI was never on track in this one. Loveland had 1 catch for 3 yds on just 3 targets. Not what we had in mind for this young TE.
We're replaying our winning Week 1 prop pick by taking the over once again on WR Michael Wilson of Arizona. We're baffled that Wilson's number is LOWER than last week (even vs SEA), when he went 5 for 56 versus the Chargers. Last week we noted that this guy averaged 87 yards per game in the last 10 games of 2025. How long is it going to take for people to realize that Wilson is actually the best WR on the Cardinals (not the guy with the famous WR dad)? While we wait for this to happen, we'll keep betting on him. OVER.
Post-bet analysis: LOSS Seattle came to the desert and did something that a lot of other defenses could not vs Jacoby Brissett: contain the output of this consistent AZ passing attack. Even healthy garbage time couldn't help Wilson's totals, as he grabbed just 2 catches for 18 yards. Note that was still 18 yds more than the 'name' WR!
The Patriots' loss of AJ Brown is a huge blow to their passing game. Drake Maye is now back to last year's WRs and a not-yet-trusted Romeo Doubs - who had a costly drop in Week 1. Who does Drake trust? Big, barefoot-loving Mack Hollins. Consider this: Hollins has topped 36+ receiving yards in his last 5 games, and 7 of his last 9. He also plays a healthy snap count each game because of his trusted ability to run block like a TE. Nope, not worried about Doubs or Kyle Williams getting more targets. Gimme Mack OVER.
Post-bet analysis: LOSS Drake Maye didn't light it up in this wet matchup, throwing for only 208 yards. He used TE Hunter Henry as his early safety blanket, then added a couple of deep shots to WR Romeo Doubs. Hollins managed a feeble line of 2 catches for 18 yards as the Patriots defense controlled the game versus the Steelers.
Imagine you are Matt LaFleur, coach of the Green Bay Packers. Your team has lost six straight games and the fan base is starting to grumble. What's your path to a W? Proven veteran QB Jordan Love or second-year RB MarShawn Lloyd? I think you'd have to ride with Love, rather than feeding a ton of carries to a young unproven back. Lloyd's 13 for 37 effort vs MIN in week 1 makes me question if he's an RB1. Coach LaFleur might too, as he gave RB Chris Brooks more snaps than Lloyd (38 to 30) last week. Because we expect Love to be chucking the rock like week 1 (42 atts), we'll take the UNDER.
Post-bet analysis: WIN It's not a shock that the sole winning prop this week was this UNDER bet. We nailed the analysis on this, as last week's snap count showed that Lynch was not yet a clear RB1. This week it turned out that new acquisition Kaleb Johnson would get the most RB carries out of 3 backs. Lynch would manage just 6 carries for 20 yards with a lost fumble.
Sticking with the Jets-Packers matchup in the Meadowlands, we're looking for a closer result than most NFL fans expect. In particular we believe that the NYJ offense will have success against the Micah-less GB defense through WR1 Garrett Wilson. Wilson has had 71+ yards in his last 4 healthy games dating back to last year - when awful QB play was the Jets norm. Geno Smith found Wilson 6 times for 79 yards last week, and we think it continues vs a secondary that got torched by Justin Jefferson last week for 8 catches and 92 yards.
Post-bet analysis: LOSS This receiving OVER at least was close, and we were a bit surprised that the Jets did not try to go to Wilson when the game moved into OT. Wilson ended up with a respectable 5-57-1 line at the end, but it was shocking that his teammate Adonai Mitchell saw a total of 12 WR targets to his 7 in this game.
W- Chris Olave OVER 71.5 rec yds vs BAL
L- Alec Pierce OVER 44.5 rec yds vs KC
W- Tyler Shough OVER 231.5 pass yds vs BAL
L- Emeka Egbuka OVER 52.5 rec yds vs CLE
L- Tucker Kraft OVER 45.5 rec yds vs NYJ
L- Derrick Henry OVER 92.5 rush yds vs NO
L- Jalen Hurts UNDER 206.5 pass yds vs TEN
Post-bet analysis: 2-5 On this topsy-turvy day of surprising upsets (Browns, Saints, Vikings) and near-upsets (Titans, Jets) only the New Orleans pitch and catch tandem of Shough and Olave were winners here in the bonus bucket. Pierce got injured early and never got a shot to put up numbers in what became a 33-30 shootout.
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