NFL Season Longshot Props: Top Picks for the Season

Mix together a first-year head coach and the worst QB situation in the league, and you've got a recipe for a lot of losses. The Saints start their season with tough matchups against AZ, SFO, and road games at SEA and BUF. The main competition here for this NFL prop is CLE and NYG; however, I believe the veteran QBs leading those teams will snag a win before the Saints do. This NFL prop pick leans on time-tested strategies of betting against weak QBs and weak coaching.

Update after Week 5:  I successfully hedged this bet and covered all of my wagers on NYG success with a 5.5x bet on NO over the Giants in this game, which NO won.  As I predicted at the time, it would be the only NO win for a while - which is still true as of Week 9.  If the Jets just could have won in Week 1 this would have been a straight cash.

Historically, Coach of the Year has been awarded to a turnaround effort - and who faces a bigger turnaround challenge than New England's Mike Vrabel? An 8 or 9 win season off of last year's 4-13 disaster, especially if paired with strong NFL betting picks, will be enough to keep the former award winner's (2021) name in the mix here. As fans look for NFL props and season longshots, Vrabel's ability to lead a successful turnaround will be closely watched.

Update ahead of Week 10:  This prop is now at +180 and Vrabel has 2 close competitors (Steichen +160, McDonald +500).  I took advantage of the Colts unexpected loss to PIT to place a 2 unit hedge on Steichen at +160.  As a result I'll see a plus return with a  win by Steichen (1 unit), Vrabel (4.5 units) or McDonald (17 units).

OK, so this one's not a complete turnaround effort a la Vrabel and the Patriots situation, but McDonald fits the bill of a younger well-regarded coach on the rise. A division title and a high playoff seed with an elite defense might be what it takes to make a strong case for the Seattle coach to be in the COY mix.  Hitting this longshot NFL prop bet would be especially satisfying given the juicy +2000 odds on this prop.

Update ahead of Week 10:  This prop is now at +500 and McDonald has 2 competitors ahead of him (Steichen +160, Vrabel +180). I took advantage of the Colts unexpected loss to PIT to place a 2 unit hedge on Steichen at +160.  As a result I'll see a plus return with a  win by Steichen (1 unit), Vrabel (4.5 units) or McDonald (17 units).

What is going on with America's team? Even before the inexcusable Micah Parsons departure, the Cowboys' defense looked iffy on all levels. With a questionable running game added to the mix, you've got a one-dimensional offensive club chasing points all season long against more balanced opponents. This situation looks ripe for cashing in on a longshot NFL prop as the betting lines tend to reflect public perception more than current status.

Update ahead of Week 10:  The Cowboys defense has proven to be more than iffy -- it's historically bad at this point, but the running game has been better than expected.  This has thus far been a bet as to "can NYG pass DAL?", but the recent injury to WAS QB Jayden Daniels also casts the Commanders into this race to the bottom.

So here's a prop with a big payout where a player only has one legitimate competitor to beat out. The NO QB room is ugly, and still-rookie Michael Penix threw 3 TDs in 3 starts last year for ATL. Yes, Baker Mayfield threw 41 TDs last year, but there's been an OC change in Tampa and some natural regression may occur from his high 2024 TD rate. Can Young build on his strong 2024 finish to toss 30+ TDs? This could be an interesting NFL prop to consider as a season longshot.

Update ahead of Week 10:  The analysis here has been right on for NO and ATL, but Bryce Young has not proven to be consistent enough or healthy enough to catch up with Baker Mayfield's pace.  We'd need an injury to Mayfield to cash this ticket as of this point in the year.

Have you seen Ashton Jeanty on tape? He's a human pinball that bounces off tacklers. I know there's not a lot of love for the LV offensive line, but with continuity and a more threatening passing game featuring Geno Smith under center, Jeanty could be a key player to watch in your NFL betting picks this season. Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly will likely have Jeanty carry the rock a ton this year, making this +1800 payout an intriguing season long longshot prop bet.

Update ahead of Week 10:  Well - this one was a very long shot that has not played out well.  The LV line hasn't been good, and a long Brock Bowers absence on offense has crippled the run game.  Throw in an electric start by Colts RB Jonathan Taylor and this is a ticket we can rip up at this point.