NFL Week 10: A 3-3 tally as the Bills' early deficit sunk two bets

This week we're backing the Patriots' terrific second year QB who's been playing at an MVP level.  Should we ever bet against Drake Maye?  Although NFC power Tampa Bay should prove to be a challenge for NE as a team their pass defense has not struck fear into opponents, as they given up this number of pass yards 3 of the last 4 weeks including 264 to the anemic Saints.  Facing Baker Mayfield off a bye week, NE may have to run up points - and vs TB that means through the air.  Maye has held his own in passing props this year as he is 7-2 over, and 6-3 against this number.

Post-bet analysis:  WIN   Maye continues to get the job done for the Patriots, as he threw for 270 yards, outdueling Baker Mayfield to a 28-23 win in Tampa.  This prop was a bit in doubt until an unexpected late bomb to Mack Hollins pushed us over the total.  Maye continues to play at an MVP level for NE.

James Cook was a training camp holdout for the Bills.  He emerged with a new long term deal and has been worth his weight in gold this year - arguably as the second best RB in the league behind Jonathan Taylor.   This is a high prop number, but recognize that Cook has passed this number in all but two contests this year.   There's no reason to believe that Miami is the team that will stop this streak, as their rushing defense is one of the softest in the league.  Cook has already topped this number once versus the Dolphins, rushing 19 times for 108 yards back in Week 3.

Post-bet analysis:  LOSS   We were victimized by unexpected game flow in this bet, as Cook would receive just 13 carries in a game where Buffalo played from behind the entire game.  On the other side of the field, De'Von Achane was doing his best Cook impression, carrying 22 times for 174 yards.

 If this prop bet looks familiar, it's because it was a winning pick for us exactly one week ago.   Despite Buffalo needing more from its WR room, it was old reliables WR Khalil Shakir and TE Dalton Kincaid that stepped up in last week's big win against KC. Meanwhile Coleman finished with 2 catches for 17 on just 2 targets. It's clear that he doesn't have the trust of QB Josh Allen, with 30 yards or less in 6 of the last 7 games.  Additionally, a Gabe Davis comeback is gaining more noise in Buffalo - he'd be taking immediate targets from Keon when activated.  

Post-bet analysis:  LOSS   In addition to the game flow which forced Josh Allen to throw 40 times against Miami, stud TE Dalton Kincaid blew a hamstring in Q2 - leaving the Bills one hands man down.  Still, Coleman had all of 11 yards entering Q4 until a 35 yard TD gave him a 3 for 46 line.

OK, I know what you're saying:  Davis Mills is a backup QB - why am I betting on that?  In this season of QB revival with Mac Jones and Jacoby Ellsbury, Mills is as solid a backup as you'll find in the NFL in his 5th year with the Texans.  Is he rusty? Last week after CJ Stroud left the game Mills put up 137 yards against Denver's stingy pass defense.  But this is really a bet against the JAX pass defense, having allowed 280+ yards in 4 of the last 5 games, including 284 to the iffy Geno Smith. With the HOU receiving corps finally fully healthy, this prop number is very achievable.

Post-bet analysis:  WIN   Here we got a boost from the game flow that had Jacksonville scoring early and taking a big lead into the 4th quarter.  Mills brought the Texans roaring back to a win, tossing an astounding 45 passes for 292 yards to lead HOU to a stunning 36-29 comeback win .

Last year's rookie WR sensation Ladd McConkey had a quiet start to  2025, tallying less than 50 yards 4 times in his first 5 games.  But in the last 4 games McConkey has been targeted a whopping 41 times, topping this prop number in three of those contests.  And we expect the Steelers to provide little resistance, as they have given up a massive total of 770 WR yards over the last three games, including 115 yards apiece to Colts WR Alec Pierce and Michael Pittman last week.  We expect Justin Herbert to find McConkey early and often in Sunday's contest.

Post-bet analysis:  WIN   McConkey did not disappoint in this prop, topping the Chargers' receiver group with 4 catches for 107 yards on just 6 targets in what was an early grind.  A 58-yarder in the second half sealed the deal, and it proved to be a dagger for LA in defeating PIT 25-10.

The Panthers offense has been hit and miss this year, making it an ideal play for FG props.  This week the Saints offense poses no threat of a blowout. This struggling offense features rookie QB Tyler Shough in his second start, and just dealt one of its two starting WRs Rashid Shaheed to Seattle.  We expect the improving Carolina defense to give the offense plenty of opportunities for its kicker.  Past trends are also positive, as Fitzgerald has had 2 or more tries in 4 of his last 5 games.  We expect to see at least two Fitzgerald attempts sail through the uprights this week.

Post-bet analysis:  LOSS   After a week off of the K prop train this was a deflating return. I had called the CAR offense 'hit and miss' above, but against the woeful Saints it was just a 'miss' either by land (73 yards) or by air (102 yards).  Fitzy missed his sole attempt as the Panthers lost at home.