NFL Week 6 Props: A 2-2 week, despite a pseudo-benching in NY

The return of QB Michael Penix has brought new life to the ATL offense, and WR Drake London has been one of the biggest beneficiaries. In his last three games London has had 96+ yards receiving on 27 total targets, leaving the early season coma induced by QB Cooper Rush a distant afterthought.  With the Bears wheeling out Caleb Williams to sling it this weekend in the Mercedes Benz Dome we see a strong possibility of a shootout, as both defenses have struggled to stop the pass this year.  Drake needs just 6 catches at his 17+ yard average to top this number. OVER.

Post-bet analysis:  LOSS   We did get an offensive game in Atlanta (though more of a blowout followed by garbage time). Surprisingly the WR beneficiary was not London, but the Falcons often-invisible WR2, Jahan Dotson who went 5 catches for 87 yards.  The Bears did a good job on London, as he only caught 4 of 10 targets for 62 yards.

I've not logged a single prop pick on Giants RB Cam Skattebo in his brief pro career, because of low YPC and unpredictable usage. But Coach John Harbaugh has brought some usage consistency as after 5 weeks Skattebo has three 18+ carry games along with four games of 58+ rushing yards. Enter the New Orleans rush defense, yielding 5+ YPC over their recent games and this looks like an opportunity.  I'll add that the Vikings smothered NO QB Tyler Shough with pressure last week and held him to 98 yds passing - if the Giants use a similar recipe there will be a lot of RB carries. OVER.

Post-bet analysis:  LOSS   I introduced this bet (above) by saying that I've not ever logged a prop pick on Giants RB Cam Skattebo, and after this week's sorta-benching by coach John Harbaugh it might be my last.  Why not make the guy inactive instead of giving him zero touches? It's never fun to lose a prop bet -- but to lose a bet when a guy was not given a chance is almost not fair.

We're returning to a winning UNDER prop from earlier this year when unproven Packers RB MarShawn Lloyd was anointed as the new starter during Josh Jacobs' suspension. And in the intervening weeks he has still done nothing to prove that he's a lead RB in the NFL.  In six career games Lloyd has never run for more than 37 yards.  Given his 2.8 career YPC he's also shown no evidence that he should get the ball more often. The Packers have split carries across multiple RBs over the past few weeks.  Yes, DAL has a poor run defense but this matchup will likely require an air attack for GB to keep up. UNDER.

Post-bet analysis:  WIN   No -- say it is isn't so! Josh Jacobs is returning to the GB backfield? Talk about killing the golden goose named MarShawn Lloyd! Lloyd is an UNDER rushing yards prop goldmine, as he only managed 10 yards on 8 carries vs DAL this week.  (This follows his earlier effort of 10 yards on 9 carries the last time we wagered on his prop number.) But we'll take the easy win.

Let me say this upfront: I'm not a Jameis Winston fan. But he clearly knows a TE weapon when he sees one, and Isaiah Likely fits the bill. Ole Jameis peppered Likely with 25 targets over the last two games and the TE posted receiving totals of 66 and 94 yards. The Saints defense ranks 7th worst in the NFL in TE yardage per game, allowing 71+ yards in these first five weeks. We feel Winston will again be able to complete passes to his favored target with the weak Saints pass rush, similar to what he faced over the last two weeks versus Arizona and Washington. OVER.

Post-bet analysis:  WIN   OK, so the NYG player who actually was permitted to touch the ball this week performed much as we thought he would.  Likely caught Jameis Winston's first two completed passes for 40 yards, and continued to flourish even as JJ McCarthy came into the game when Winston was benched. Final totals were 6 catches for 99 yards on 11 targets for the game. Win!