NFL Week 6: 1-5 record, burned by injury / TE twists / close K bets

Sam Darnold has been an efficient and effective passer since Week 1, though most of NFL fandom probably didn't take note until last week's shootout vs. Baker Mayfield and the Bucs.  Having a top 3 WR in Jaxon Smith-Njigba has propelled him to a 4-1 over record on his passing yards props this year.  This week the Seahawks face a Jaguars team that has given up consecutive 300 yard games to Mac Jones and Patrick Mahomes.  This prop number therefore looks altogether too low.

Post-bet analysis:  WIN   Sam Darnold and JSN alone combined for 163 yards through the air as Seattle continues to throw the ball effectively.  This was a relatively easy W as Darnold finished with 295 yards on the day.

OK, well this is a prop bet pick that you have to make with some deep breathing to hold down the bile in your throat. Ridley has been a supreme disappointment for the Cam Ward Titans this year, seeing a significant number of targets but thus far a 1-4 over record on his receiving props.  But that one over came last week vs Arizona with a 100+ yard game and we're betting this will continue vs. the atrocious Raiders corners.   Consider that LV has yielded the prop yards number to not one but 2 opponent WRs in four of five games this year.  If Ridley doesn't top this level as Cam Ward's primary target here it may be time to play the youngsters in TEN. 

Post-bet analysis:  LOSS   I noted above that this prop might be hard to swallow.  When Ridley came up lame with a hamstring injury after six snaps this became full barf mode.

Jake Ferguson has been on fire the past four weeks for the Cowboys since the injury to CeeDee Lamb.  He leads the NFL in TE receptions with 41, having caught 36 over the past four weeks alone as Dak's most targeted receiver.  Enter the Carolina Panthers, who -- despite their reputation as a poor defense --- have an above average secondary that leads team to run or throw short passes on offense.   The Panthers have allowed a TE to gain 59 yards or more in three of their five games this year.  I think Ferguson becomes the fourth, or at least will top this 48.5 yard prop number.

Post-bet analysis:  LOSS   The Cowboys' sparse usage of Ferguson in this game was a bit baffling. The big TE got only 3 targets, catching them all for 33 yards and a TD.   He was averaging double digit targets coming in, but a large number went to WR George Pickens who had a big day.

On a team loaded with offensive weapons, LaPorta had his best game of the year last week against the Bengals with 5 catches for 92 yards and a touchdown.  But the matchup this week vs. KC is another level of difficulty.  How about these Chiefs defensive stats against TEs?  KC has allowed just one tight end to surpass 30 yards all year, that was back in Week 1 when Tyler Conklin caught 2 passes for 50 yards.  In fact, only once in 5 weeks have they allowed more than 2 catches to a TE:  Mark Andrews caught 7 in the lopsided win over BAL, yet he only gained 30 yards on those catches.  Although LaPorta is an elite receiving TE, we think the Lions will attack elsewhere this week.

Post-bet analysis:  LOSS   This was a close one, and if not for a rare Jared Goff scramble drill 27-yard completion in the first half we would have hit this one.  LaPorta ended up with 5 grabs for 55.

This week a lot of the favorable FG situations had props with high negative odds.  Here we're able to hop onto Indy's high scoring offense at a good price due to K Badgley entering as a mid-season injury replacement for Spencer Shrader - who was an absolute FG machine in Weeks 1-4.  I'd be a bit skittish if a replacement was new to the NFL, but the "Money Badger" is a seasoned veteran of five teams with an 82% career FG success rate.  He'll also be kicking indoors in the dome against a Cardinals team that tends to sputter in the second half of games.  It all adds up to a nice prop opportunity on Sunday.

Post-bet analysis:  LOSS  The Money Badger nailed all five of his attempted kicks on Sunday, unfortunately four of them were extra points.  I had expected AZ to get a few more red zone stops and not hang in this game for so long.

OK, read the header on this K prop again to be sure you've got it:  we're betting o2.5 Extra Points here, not Field Goals.  I rarely go this route with K prop bets but the +118 payoff for a wager where the averages are in our favor is too much to pass up.  Sam Darnold and the SEA offense has been clicking lately (35 points vs TB last week), and they've been great at converting touchdowns.  In fact, Myers is averaging 3.4 XPs per game, as Seattle's 17 XP attempts this year trail only the Lions in the NFL.  There should be more of the same this week at the Jaguars, whose defense has given up a lot of yards the last two weeks.

Post-bet analysis:  LOSS  This one brought our season K prop record to an even 4-4.   After the recent 38-35 shootout with Tampa Bay I'd expected a similar high scoring match, but the Jaguars failed to compete offensively.