NFL Week 2 Props: A rough Sunday for our picks (1-3)

Denver and Bo Nix won their opener vs Tennessee last week, but it was a grind won primarily because of the Broncos' suffocating defense and strong run game.  Nix had three turnovers in a poor day through the air.  Even so Sutton notched 61 of the team's 176 passing yards.  I think the Denver offense finds its rhythm this week starting with their #1 WR.  The Colts defense wasn't striking fear into OC hearts prior to shutting down Miami's wet noodle attack last week. Bank on Sean Payton's club leaning on Sutton in the dome vs Indy.

Post-bet analysis:  LOSS  Bo Nix did come out firing at Indy, racking up three touchdowns in the first half.  Unfortunately, the target of most of his passes was WR Troy Franklin who went 8 catches for 89 yards while #1 WR Sutton caught a single pass for 6 yards.

We're once again going to back the over on Joe Flacco this week, after his 291 yard Week 1 opener.  He showed off his ability to spread the ball around to a set of Browns' weapons that is deeper than most fans realize (Jeudy, Tillman, Njoku, Fannin, Sampson). Yes, this week he'll be facing a tougher defense vs the Ravens in his old stomping grounds -- but Baltimore will score and therefore Joe will need to chuck it like Josh Allen (394 yds) did last week.  But we only need 60% of Allen's total to cash this prop bet.

Post-bet analysis: LOSS  The setup was here for this one, but the execution was not -- as Flacco attempted a whopping 45 passes in the blowout but only managed 199 yards worth of completions.  Getting pulled for Dillon Gabriel at the end of the day didn't help either.

Arizona started the season with a strong ground game, piling up 146 yards against New Orleans in Week 1. In that game carries were split 12/8 between James Conner and Benson, but Benson was more effective with 8.6 yards per carry.  All summer the Cardinals have pledged a 50/50 split for their rush game.  This week the woeful rushing D Panthers, fresh off giving up 200 yards to Jacksonville, arrive to provide another week of a swinging gate D line.  I honestly couldn't believe how low this prop line was set.  Look for both Conner and Benson to have big ground totals this week.

Post-bet analysis: LOSS  This loss proved yet again that the Cardinals can't be trusted this year either.  Facing a team that gave up 200 rushing yards last week they somehow only handed the ball off to RBs a total of 14 times, preferring to have underachieving QB Kyler Murray drop back over and over.  Benson would end up with 44 total yards due to 4 catches, but WTF?  Deservedly so the Cards nearly blew a game for the second straight week versus a weak opponent.  Enjoy 2-0, Arizona, it won't last long versus the better teams.

Last week rookie QB Cam Ward managed to move the Titans enough to muster four field goals versus an elite Broncos defense.  This week I see a very similar game developing at home versus the Rams, who held the Texans to only field goals last week.  There are also injuries on both offensive lines that could really turn this game into a rockfight for points -- so I also like the under on the game total as well.  But here we're getting plus odds on a kicker who should have multiple opportunities for converting at home.

Post-bet analysis: WIN  We were wrong about the overall scoring in this one, as the Over would prevail on a crazy high scoring day in the NFL.  But that wouldn't slow down Joey Slye - who clinched this bet in the first half - and ultimately would kick 4 FGs on the day, including two from 50+ yards.  I don't think we'll see plus odds on Slye's FG odds again anytime soon after he's nailed 8 in the first two weeks of the season. The win brought our K prop record to 2-0 on the year.