NFL Week 11: Ugh ... a 1-5 record this week with a lot of close calls.

The Bengals offense is humming with Joe Flacco at the helm, and Higgins has thrived over the last 4 games with 29 targets over that span, and 3 of those with 62+ yards. (Of course his numbers pale compared to teammate Ja'Marr Chase's ridiculous 62 targets - and 44 catches - over those same 4 games!) PIT has not shown an ability in 2025 to stop a good passing game - including this Bengals one a few short weeks ago, and given CIN's own defensive ineptness we think the yardage gained will be plenty in this game.

Post-bet analysis:  WIN   We picked the right CIN WR to play here as the PIT defense surprisingly held the Bengals air attack to only 199 yards.  Higgins would catch 3 for 63 yards on 8 targets.

This is not a bet on either team's offense or defense - this wager is all about the impending weather in Buffalo on Sunday.  The forecast is for 15-20 mph sustained winds, gusts to 30 mph and snow/rain activity.   In each of these team's last games there were 8 total punts - which would top this prop total alone.  With weather impacting the ability to sustain drives down the field, we're expecting a few more punts in a game where field position may be critical in putting points on the board.  And we love getting plus odds on the bet!

Post-bet analysis:  LOSS   We mentioned that this was a bet on the weather in Buffalo, and late on Saturday the snow/rain shifted to pre-game.  These teams were relatively unaffected and only managed 6 total punts.

Denver finds itself in a tough spot here, facing a KC team at 5-4 off its bye week.  Yes, a Broncos win would be a division-clincher but this is a desperation game for an improving Chiefs team. To call the DEN offense 'ugly' over the past two weeks vs HOU and LV (28 total points) would be a compliment.  Nix is 6-4 under his prop total in 2025. Facing a KC defense which has allowed less than 200 yards passing per game, Nix and his receiver group seem to be facing a huge task in topping this prop number.  Under. 

Post-bet analysis:  LOSS   This one was a bit shocking, as we didn't expect to put up 295 yards, his second highest total of the year, versus a very competent KC defense.  A shocking Andy Reid performance following a bye week.

OK I can hear an audible 'Hmmph' as you just read the bet title line!  CMC has been both a fantasy football and real football stud this year but he's NOT been an efficient runner. He's 7-3 under his rushing props (he's 9-1 over on rec yards!) in 2025 and has only topped this yardage in 2 of 10 games - which each took 24+ carries. That volume is gone with increased usage of Brian Robinson, who is averaging 5.9 yds/carry on 22 touches over the last 3 games.  AZ held CMC to just 52 rush yds on 17 carries in the first meeting.  We think - either ahead or behind - that the Niners won't give him enough ground attempts to top 71 yds in this one.

Post-bet analysis:  LOSS   What we got right:  CMC would only get 13 carries to Brian Robinson's 8.  What we got wrong:  CMC got a full drive worth of late carries with SF up by 2 scores in Q4, and he'd average over 6 YPC to total 81 rush yards.

The Seahawks did not -- I'm fairly certain -- trade two 2026 draft picks (a 4th and a 5th) to give WR Rashid Shaheed a redshirt year as an extra receiver on their bench in 2025.  They reunited Shaheed with his former Saints OC Klint Kubiak to destroy opposing secondaries across from superstud Jaxon Smith-Njigba!  So now that Shaheed had his adjustment week with SEA (1 catch for 3 yards) we're ready for him to show up in a game where the offense will need to produce.   Shaheed is 8-1 over this number in 2025 (excluding last week's intro), and vs these Rams in Week 9 he tallied 5 catches for 68 yards.  Over.

Post-bet analysis:  LOSS  This was a tough loss as Shaheed got 5 targets but only caught 2 for 27 yards.  A first half grab got him more than half way to this number, but SEA had surprising success running the ball in a tight game.  Shucks.

Dan Campbell's Lions team comes to Philly fresh off an offensive explosion against the hapless Commanders. It was noted that he personally was calling plays in the latter half of the game as DET ran up the score.  And given that backdrop, PHI will need to score (and yes - pass the ball) if it expects to keep pace above its 10 point output vs GB last week. Goedert, a favorite Hurts target when under pressure, looks poised to benefit vs the Lions defense at a similar level to the way TEs Ertz, Otton, and Kelce did in the last 3 DET games - each gained at least 54+ yards.  We feel good about the Over here in this Sunday night game.

Post-bet analysis:  LOSS  Ugh.  Another one where it looked like a win was within grasp, but the catches just didn't come.  Five targets for Goedert, but only 2 grabs for 24 yards.  The Lions subpar offensive effort didn't help the PHI passing game.