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The first of our repeat picks features the Saints' red-hot Chris Olave. Last week without injured #2 WR DeVaughn Vele, Olave saw a ridiculous 16 targets on the way to a 10 catch for 148 yard day. This week's opponent is the Titans' defense, who has been scorched numerous times in 2025 by an opponent's top WR . There's no reason to go find another WR over prop to play when the linemakers are only moving Olave up 6 yards after his monster week. The Saints can't run the ball at all, meaning it'll be more of Shough to Olave in Nashville this week. OVER.
Post-bet analysis: WIN We placed this repeat bet in the 'pole position' here because we were supremely confident in the Shough to Olave connection, and were rewarded with another 100+ yard day (8-119-1) on 11 targets. Again we absolutely crushed this prop. One can only envision that we won't see many receiving props totals in the 60 yard range for this duo in the future. But we'll take the two weeks of layup wins!
Three weeks ago the Chargers took the field with a battered offensive line against a formidable pass rush defense (Eagles) and struggled mightily in the passing game but still managed an OT win. Here in Week 17, we can't believe the similarities between this HOU game setup and that Week 14 defense-dominated grind. Herbert threw for all of 132 yards in that one, and the Eagles matched the offensive ineptness on their side. With a Texans offense not built for long drives to the end zone, this one looks like a lot of carries and a Dicker-Fairbairn kick contest decided by a FG. UNDER.
Post-bet analysis: LOSS Our analysis was sound in this one from the LAC offense / HOU defense angle, but what put this prop bet at risk very early were the unexpected long TD passes by the Texans. The Chargers D had prevented big plays all year, and the 14-0 deficit put them in a heavier pass mode than their typical game plan. Even so, HOU made this one close - with Herbert throwing for just 236 yards on 32 attempts.
We're also repeating last week's winning pick of Tyrone Tracy in this exact page location -- we barely even have to update our analysis! This week Tracy enters having tallied 62+ yards in five of his last six games, including 71 last week. The Giants won't risk franchise QB Jaxson Dart to a season-ending injury here, so we expect run run run in a low scoring game with LV. With Tracy running the ball at 4.1 yards per carry over the last 5 games, a total of 15 carries should be sufficient for Tracy (who has topped this carry number in 4 of the last 5) to clinch this OVER.
Post-bet analysis: WIN We essentially did the math to show you how Tracy would top this prop bet, then the teams went out and executed the numbers almost exactly! Tracy would get 14 carries (not the 15 I noted), and instead of averaging 4.1 yards per carry on those 15 to hit 62 rush yards, he'd average 4.4 on 14 rushes for his 62 yard total. It ended up topping the 58.5 yard prop, giving us a win on this bet two weeks in a row.
The Titans' offense has struggled to find consistent pass catchers all season long for rookie QB Cam Ward - but TE Chig Okonkwo has been very reliable on a week to week basis. He's topped this yardage level in 5 of his last 6 games as the TEN offense has improved from miserable to 'passable' over the last few weeks. Over the last 2 outings, Okonkwo has seen 14 targets - so any usage in that range should be sufficient to top this seemingly too low prop number. OVER.
Post-bet analysis: WIN I certainly enjoyed watching Red Zone cut away to the first half of the NO-TEN game to see Chig Okonkwo catch a ball in space then weave 43 yards for a TD and a one play prop cash! Chig would end the day with 3 catches for 55 yards on 7 targets, which is right about the level of activity we expected based on the prior two weeks. A solid cash on the OVER here.
Since Joe Burrow came back to the Bengals lineup Chase Brown has re-emerged both as a runner and receiver after an invisible start to 2025. He's topped this receiving yards level in 5 of his last 6 games and now finds himself facing a Cardinals team who just gave up a 7 catch for 92 yards day to RB Bijan Robinson. Maybe the biggest threat to this wager is that an uninterested AZ team packs it in early and CIN RB Samaje Perine gets more touches - but we like the trends here to enable us to cash the OVER again on Brown.
Post-bet analysis: WIN Guess we could have played either Chase Brown's rushing prop or this receiving prop as he tore up AZ for 101 yards on the ground and had 3 catches for 40 yards through the air. We expected the Cardinals to put up more of a battle here (that's why we chose receiving), but it still didn't matter as Brown topped this prop number early for us.
L- Omarion Hampton OVER 63.5 rush yds vs HOU
W- Tre Tucker OVER 45.5 rec yds vs NYG
W- De'Von Achane OVER 73.5 rush yds vs TB
L- JaMarr Chase OVER 85.5 rec yds vs AZ
W- Kenneth Walker UNDER 53.5 rush yds vs CAR
W- Trey McBride OVER 74.5 rec yds at CIN
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