NFL Wk 18: We end the year 44-41, including 22-11 over the last 7 weeks!

We were hoping to pick Chris Olave again here but he had a surprise injury and will sit out Week 18 -- so let's go with another ascending WR, Luther Burden of the Bears.  Caught in a logjam at the beginning of the year, the rookie has seen increased playing time as his team has caught fire -- rolling up 67+ yards over each of the last 3 games, including an 8 for 138 performance as a career high last week vs the Niners.  Chicago is one of the teams that benefits strongly from a Week 18 win, and we expect Dan Campbell's Lions to score some points to keep the scoreboard numbers rolling vs his former offensive coordinator's team.  We like the OVER here vs a banged up DET secondary.

Post-bet analysis:  LOSS   This was a strange game - we certainly didn't envision a motivated Chicago team falling behind 16-0 after 3 quarters at home against a longtime rival. Burden start to get some looks late in the game as the Bears attempted to rally, but TE Colston Loveland (10 for 91 yards, 13 targets) was clearly the go to guy.  Burden got only four targets, catching 3 of them for 35 yards on the afternoon.

We're making another bet on the Bears' passing offense here, a unit which has been really clicking late in the season.  Back in Week 2 a very different Lions defense held QB Caleb Williams to a mere 207 yards passing in a 52-21 shellacking at Ford Field - but sixteen weeks later DET is a shell of its former defensive club and Ben Johnson's offense is heating up to a boil.  Specifically, DET has given up 234+ pass yards to all QBs not named Max Brosmer in the last 5 weeks, and Caleb has surpassed this prop number in each of his last three games.  Oh - one additional very important point - Williams needs just 270 yards this week to top 4,000 for the year, a milestone to shoot for.  OVER.

Post-bet analysis:  LOSS   Just when we thought we could count on Caleb rising to the next echelon of QBs he retraced a bit vs DET, taking a full three quarters before kicking it in to tie up the game at 16-16.  Not what we thought we'd see after a huge game versus the Niners.  Caleb finished with 212 yards, not far from the target number - certainly an OT period may have changed the outcome for this prop bet.

And meanwhile in Jacksonville the upstart Jaguars will be pushing hard for the victory to clinch the AFC South and get a home playoff game.  I don't know if we can say for sure at this point that the often-wayward Trevor Lawrence has figured it all out, but he's looked really good over the past 6 weeks with six straight wins scoring 23+ points.  The formula?  Throw to the open receiver, and lately that's been slot WR Parker Washington with 20 targets in his last 2 games (both over 100 yards receiving).  With an average of 18.8 YPC over his last 4 games, Washington should top this prop with just 3 catches vs TEN.  OVER.

Post-bet analysis:  WIN   You've got to love NFL stories like Washington, an unheralded sixth round pick out of Penn State rising to be the top WR for the third week in a row on a team with two first-rounders (BTJ and Travis Hunter) along with recently acquired Jakobi Meyers ahead of him on the depth chart. Dude can play though, as he got 9 targets this week and turned them into a 5 catch for 87 yard day in the JAX blowout win over TEN.

L - AJ Barner OVER 38.5 rec yds at SF

L - Sam Darnold OVER 242.5 pass yds at SF

L - Jaxon Smith-Njigba OVER 7.5 receptions at SF (+104)

W - RJ Harvey UNDER 56.5 rush yds vs LAC

W- Zay Flowers OVER 60.5 rec yds at PIT

Post-bet analysis:  2-3   We were expecting the Niners to put up a lot more offense at home vs the Seahawks, but a tight game led to lower numbers in the passing attack. Once Saturday was done we were OK, though, as the Harvey and Flowers bets hit.