NFL Week 16 Props: Our best free prop pick bets

Since the New Orleans Saints have turned to QB Tyler Shough they've quietly been on a roll, dispatching their division opponents with a solid passing game. Olave is the alpha WR in this attack, getting an extremely high target rate throughout the season.  This week the recent NO #2 WR DeVaughn Vele (who we cashed an OVER with last week) is out, likely funneling a few more targets Olave's way.  The opponent here is the woeful Jets D, punchless and Sauce-less - as well as playing a rookie QB on the other side.  We feel confident that Olave sees 9+ targets and covers this prop.

Post-bet analysis:  WIN   We were right on the nose about the woeful Jets defense and the solid play of QB Tyler Shough, but somehow underestimated Olave's potential targets as he racked up a ridiculous 16 targets on this way to a huge 10-catch, 148 yard 2TD performance.  We absolutely crushed this prop.  Hope you readers laddered higher yardage for even higher payoffs!

After cashing an Under bet on Devonta Smith back vs the Chargers in Week 14, we're returning to play it again this week - although for different reasons. This Commanders defense is generally poor all around but is glaringly week vs RBs and TEs.  As a result we expect (again) a run-heavy PHI gameplan.  The WAS numbers vs WRs reflect this method of opponent attack, as over the last 4 games only two WRs have topped this prop yardage (and each of those were 62 yard efforts). We like this play in another Eagles game that is unlikely to be an air attack shootout.

Post-bet analysis:  WIN   Gotta admit that we were scared when the Eagles went with a no-RB spread set early.  Smith got some early yards and targets, thankfully dropping a 25+ yard TD pass.  Ultimately the game settled in to the run-heavy approach we predicted and Smith tallied a 6 catch for 42 yard, 1 TD total. A decent Fantasy Football day but still well UNDER the prop total of 57.5 for a win! 

After rookie RB Cam Skattebo departed with a season-ending injury you may not have paid attention to the NYG RB pecking order.  But over the last 5 weeks Tyrone Tracy has been the clear lead back -- and he's also been an efficient runner, tallying 62+ yards in four of his last five games.  Here facing an aggressive Brian Flores defense, we expect the Giants to run the ball often.  Given that MIN is giving up over 4.5 yards per carry over the last 5 games, a total of 13 carries should be sufficient for Tracy  (who has topped this carry number in 4 of the last 5) to clinch this OVER. 

Post-bet analysis:  WIN   Again we were completely correct in our assumption that the Giants would choose to run the ball often - in fact they started with 15 straight running plays!  This propelled Tracy to cross his prop number easily before halftime.  The final tally was 16 carries for 71 yards, exactly on the 4.5 yard average we noted above.  Solid win on the OVER.

As a Patriots fan I take no pleasure in proposing this prop bet, but a number of factors point to this play being a solid one this week.  First and foremost, the absence of DT Milton Williams in the NE defensive front has sunk a top 5 run defense to  a bottom 5 one during his IR stint.  This was proven last week when James Cook carved up the Patriots for 100+ yards and 3 TDs.  Plus, Henry is heating up for playoff-desperate BAL with 90+ yard performances in his last two games.  Add a "not right" Lamar into this mix, and it looks like a big King Henry game this week for the Ravens. OVER.

Post-bet analysis:  WIN   This is a great example of a prop line reflecting season-long averages rather than recent trends as noted above.  As expected the NE run defense couldn't stop Henry as he rumbled for 128 yards on 18 carries while Lamar Jackson limped off the field after aggravating his back injury.  Solid win on this OVER.

Yes I know what you're saying here:  no way I'm putting my money on that crummy Chargers' passing offense that I've seen the last two weeks in primetime!  Ah, but a week of Justin Herbert facing this truly inept Dallas secondary makes a huge difference.  McConkey's own struggles this year have been clear, failing to top this number in his last 4 outings.  But he's still the WR1 on this club, and this secondary is nowhere near the level of play that he has faced the last two weeks versus PHI and KC.  We think Herbert and McConkey reconnect here for the OVER.

Post-bet analysis:  LOSS   Ugh -despite a correct read on LAC vs DAL we ended up 4 yards short of cashing this prop (and a 5-0 week!), and it certainly looked in range with McConkey at 43 yards halfway through the game. Unfortunately he got stuck there as too many targets from Justin Herbert's 300 yards of passing yardage went to Quentin Johnston and the other Chargers WRs.

L- Audric Estime OVER 36.5 rush yds vs NYJ 

L- Ben Sinnott OVER 9.5 rec yds vs PHI (Sat)

W- DJ Moore OVER 46.5 rec yds vs GB (Sat)

L- Khalil Shakir OVER 38.5 rec yds at CLE

L- RJ Harvey UNDER 49.5 rush yds vs JAX

L- Nico Collins OVER 67.5 rec yds vs LV 

Post-bet analysis:  1-5 YIKES! These are the picks that didn't make the final cut to be featured picks.  A couple were really close, but a bad bunch all around this week. The RJ Harvey UNDER was most frustrating as he had just 7 carries for 50 yards, including a 38 yard TD to give us a loss by 0.5 yard.