NFL Week 15 Props: Our best free prop pick bets

The Cincinnati Bengals defense versus TEs is far and away the worst in the NFL.  Entering Week 15 they've surrendered an average of 96.7 yards per game, a full 25 yards per game worse than the nearest team!  In week 13, Likely torched CIN with a 5 for 95 day.  What's changed since then?  Nothing, as the Bills TEs put up a whopping 137 yards last week. Likely's own involvement in the Ravens offense has been increasing, with 12 targets over the last two games.  We see a repeat of week 13 with 4+ catches and enough receiving yards to go OVER.

Post-bet analysis:  LOSS   I think we need to put out an APB for Isaiah Likely who had a total of ZERO targets versus a historically bad TE defense. Actually the real blame here seems to lie with the quitting Bengals who couldn't to put up a score at home versus a hated division rival - thus Lamar Jackson would only attempt 12 total passes for 150 yards. A really baffling L here.

It's going to be a below-freezing Monday night in Pittsburgh, so you might think that Tua's well-publicized poor cold weather record is behind this bet -- but it's not.  The reality is that over the last 4 weeks the 4-0 Dolphins (not a misprint) have found a winning formula:  play solid defense, hand the ball off to De'Von Achane, and don't let Tua throw it too much.  Tua has had 23 or fewer attempts over the last 4 games, and under 200 yards in ALL of them!  We see the same formula here vs PIT this week in a game with a lot of rushing attempts on both sides.

Post-bet analysis:  LOSS   Didn't see us losing this bet late in the third quarter with Tua sporting just 65 yards passing.  But then the Steelers zipped up and down the field like the LA Rams and got up 28-3 on the Dolphins.  That led to a pillowy soft PIT defense with  Tua throwing every down, and that 202 yard nunber disappeared rapidly. A game flow that I didn't think likely.

Here's another case where we feel the prop numbers haven't kept up with a player's increasing usage.   Since the Saints dealt away Rashid Shaheed in November, Vele has served as the Saints  #2 WR with the target frequency (20 over the last 3 games) and usage (93% of snaps last week vs TB) to match.  In those last 3 games he has posted 37, 40, and 93 yard receiving totals with an improving Tyler Shough at QB.  With this game taking place in the climate-controlled Superdome we think Vele and Chris Olave will both do well, with Vele hitting this OVER. 

Post-bet analysis:  WIN   We love winning prop bets, but it's even more satisfying when we nail every aspect of the analysis.  Vele owned the WR2 role in this game, getting 6 targets and departing with a 5 catch for 69 yard total after getting an injury late in the game.  And yes, as we also suggested, Olave also went on to top his prop number too in the Saints' upset victory. 

Hampton returned from an IR stint last week to post 67 total yards (56 rush, 11 rec) versus a stingy Eagles defense.  The part we really like is that he put up those numbers despite being outsnapped at RB by Kimani Vidal 51 to 23.  We'll take that as his 'easing-in' week and look for him to get most of the snaps this week - meaning more opportunity for the rookie to put up yards.  This is a surprisingly low number from our view, as Hampton has topped this rushing+receiving total in 5 of 6 games this year.

Post-bet analysis:  WIN   The Chargers surprisingly gave both Hampton and backfield mate Kimani Vidal  almost a 50/50 split in the backfield.  Fortunately Hampton was a very efficient 15 for 61 with his carries, and his single reception for 4 yards gave him 65 on the afternoon.  A tight but rewarding W for us in this one. 

Prior to last week's 3 catch for 12 yards effort at Buffalo, Chase Brown had recorded four straight games with 20+ yards receiving.   Two weeks ago against this very same Ravens defense he logged 7 catches for 35 yards.  Samaje Perine's return to the Bengals backfield has impacted Brown's rushing numbers but not receiving - as he still is getting 75+% of the targets.  The absence of trusted target Tee Higgins this week is another reason to think that Brown easily tops this prop number in a high-scoring contest.

Post-bet analysis:  WIN   So this bet in the aforementioned Ravens-Bengals game went true to form (Unlike the Likely prop).  Two weeks ago Brown's receiving line was 7 catches for 35 yards on 7 targets.  On Sunday he had 7 catches for 37 yards on 7 targets.  A clean winner above the prop number of 19.5 yards.

L- Jayden Higgins OVER 36.5 rec yds vs AZ 

W- Harold Fannin Jr OVER 46.5 rec yds at CHI

L- Juwan Johnson OVER 39.5 rec yds vs CAR

W- Ashton Jeanty UNDER 53.5 rush yds at PHI

W- Christian Watson UNDER 54.5 rec yds vs DEN

W- Ricky Pearsall OVER 33.5 rec yds vs TEN 

Post-bet analysis:  SOLID 4-2   Fannin totaled 48 yards to give us a close W, but the Jeanty and Watson unders were comfortable wins.  Pearsall was a blowout with 96 yards! Johnson was also close, but as noted above the Saints WRs both had good games.