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NFL's rushing leader over the last 3 weeks: Bijan? Jonathan Taylor? James Cook? Nope - it's Miami's De'Von Achane with 174, 120, and 134 yard games. With a bye week rest in the midst of that streak there's no reason he can't make it 4 straight 100 yard games versus the Jets. Last week Bijan averaged 6.2 yards a carry versus the Green Men, and Achane is getting a 1990's era 20+ carries per game in this hot stretch. Look for more of the same as the Fins won't trust Tua to chuck the ball a whole lot in the cold at the Meadowlands in what could be a sneaky shootout game.
Post-bet analysis: WIN Achane went down with an injury in the first half after just 7 carries, but to that point he managed to tear off 92 yards against the Jets. Jaylen Wright put up 100+ yards for the rest of what have been a 200 yard effort for Achane. Nonetheless we're overjoyed with a W despite the early injury on this prop bet.
There's a whole convergence of factors that make Saints RB Devin Neal a great receiving prop this week: A solid 3 catch for 22 effort last week vs MIA in his debut as the NO starter; a likely negative game script vs a playoff-fighting TB team; and the TB defense has allowed the most receiving yards to RBs in the NFL this year at 681 over 12 games. We've had good success this year in spotting ideal prop bets on receiving RBs, having gone 2-0 just last week. We think Neal gets this easily and if you're inclined you might want to bump the yards number up to get plus odds.
Post-bet analysis: LOSS The game flow didn't actually turn out as I thought here as the Saints hung with the Bucs all day on a soggy field. And who is Evan Hull and why did he get an RB catch? Neal would get oh-so-close with a 4th quarter catch for 14 yards leaving us 4 yards short of a perfect 5-0 week. Good bet, tough L.
The Broncos' WR pecking order has been a turnstile all season long. Early in the year Sutton and Mims gave way to Troy Franklin, who is now trending down. The latest riser is rookie WR Pat Bryant who has 40+ receiving yards in his last five games, including 13 targets, 8 catches and 124 yards in his last two outings. Put that awful 10-7 DEN-LV Thursday night game from a few weeks ago out of your memory and confidently place a wager on Bryant to easily top this number in the rematch vs a weak LV pass defense.
Post-bet analysis: WIN We were certainly looking for more than a 4 target game out of Bryant, given the trends coming in -- but those 4 proved just enough to get us 32 yards and top this number. An important reminder to shop around for the best number among books -- two others I checked had this at 32.5, a bet swinger. It's another W !!
Even though QB Lamar Jackson has not been himself lately the Ravens still find themselves in the hunt for the playoffs with a huge game at home versus the Steelers. HIs top WR target Zay Flowers put up a complete dud (2 catches for 6 yards) last week vs CIN but consider: he got 7 targets vs the Bengals, and in all prior 5 games he had 58+ yards receiving in each. Lamar topped 200 yards passing last game for the first time in 4 weeks and we think he'll find Zay this week to top this number versus a not-so-good Steelers pass defense.
Post-bet analysis: WIN We figured Zay would get enough touches to top this prop, but with the Steelers putting up a surprising offensive show, Flowers ended up with 8 catches for 124 yards on 11 targets! This prop bet was on cruise control after the first half. Love an easy W !!
All signs point to a run-heavy Monday Night contest between the Eagles and Chargers this week: Justin Herbert's hand injury, the Black Friday 200+ yard rushing frenzy by the Bears over the Eagles, and a deep set of injuries to both offensive lines. As a result of all of the above we foresee a rapid game clock and a lower score. Combine this with a tough Chargers pass defense and a busy last two weeks for oft-forgotten WR AJ Brown - and you get limited action for Hurts' #2 WR Devonta Smith. We'll take the Under.
Post-bet analysis: WIN We were right about the run-heavy ugly game here, but the ineptness on each side led to an unwanted overtime at 19-19 with a live Under bet. Thankfully Smith entered the OT session with only 9 yards receiving, so his 28 yard OT grab brought him to just 37 yards on the night. Gotta love when a good script plays out !!
W- Chris Rodriguez Jr OVER 41.5 rush yds at MIN
L- Tyler Warren OVER 53.5 rec yds at JAX
L- Brenton Strange OVER 45.5 rec yds vs IND
W- Jayden Daniels UNDER 215.5 pass yds at MIN
L- James Cook OVER 100.5 rush yds vs CIN
L- Brock Bowers OVER 59.5 rec yds vs DEN
Post-bet analysis: MIXED BAG 2-4 We surprisingly lost all 3 of our tight end bets -- certainly the IND-JAX TE bets were hit hard by the Daniel Jones injury, as it thrust a rookie QB into what may have been a shootout. On the other hand we did make the right calls on the Commanders.
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