NFL Week 9 Props: 2-2 as we nailed our WR bets but dropped the others

Denver continues to improve on the offensive side of the ball as we reach the NFL mid-season.  After whipping up on the Cowboys porous defense last week, Bo Nix and the Broncos face a much tougher task versus the solid Texans D.  The Houston defensive front has the 5th highest QB pressure rate in the league and elite coverage in the defensive backfield - leading us to take the Over prop this week on TE Evan Engram, Nix's short-range safety blanket.  Engram is 5-2 this year over his prop total, and has topped this week's number in each of the last 5 games.  Averaging 4.5 receptions per game on 6+ targets during the stretch, Engram looks once again as if he'll get a fair share of looks as Nix won't be able to hold the ball for long.  We like Engram to top his prop number in a game where many of the other offensive weapons on both sides may struggle.

Post-bet analysis:  LOSS   We had expected this HOU game to be a tough grind, but we certainly didn't expect what we got from Engram:  0 catches for 0 yards on just 3 targets.  This is especially true as Bo Nix managed a decent passing game versus the Texans solid pass D.  Well - file this one in the category of "Sometimes you confidently send your ace to the mound and he gets unexpectedly shelled in his worst performance of the year."

Hopes were high in Buffalo this year that 2nd year wideout Keon Coleman would develop into the true WR1 that the Bills have lacked since the departure of Stefon Diggs.  A Week 1 line of 8 catches for 112 yards buoyed those hopes, but since then the SS Coleman has gone adrift:  7 games with 45 yards or less receiving, including 6 at or below the 30 yard mark, and just a single TD in that span.  This week it doesn't get any easier against the Chiefs' tough secondary.  If the Bills are once again going to beat their archrivals again in western NY some receiver is going to have to step up big - but for my money that's not Coleman.  How confident are they in the current WRs?  Buffalo re-signed past WR Gabe Davis (who washed out as a free agent signing in Jacksonville) to their practice squad this week.  I'll take the under here.

Post-bet analysis:  WIN   We're pleased that we nailed all aspects of this bet and won it easily.  Coleman received only two targets (his lowest total of the year) and caught both for just 17 yards.  Both Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir were the receivers who stepped up (again) in a balanced attack that also featured a heavy dose of James Cook.  (A post-script to this bet was I was ready to bet it at 37.5, but Josh Palmer's absence pushed it to 41.5 -- in either case an easy win.

Despite what your overall opinion may be on the state of the 2025 Las Vegas Raiders, the club has had an above-average rushing defense all year long.  They've not allowed a 100 yard rusher this year, and the high total in their last 3 games was a respectable 66 yards on 17 carries to all-world RB Jonathan Taylor last month. Now rested at home after a bye week they face JAX RB Travis Etienne, who after two 100+ yard rushing games in Weeks 1 and 4 has come back to earth with the entire Jaguars offense.  In his last three games Etienne has tallied 58, 55, and 55 total yards.   Along the way he's ceded touches to rookie Bhayshul Tuten and LeQuint Allen, especially as a receiver.  In fact, if the Jags fall behind early in this one I'd expect Tuten to play most of the snaps.   The negative factors here (including JAX WR injuries, LV return of TE Brock Bowers) don't point to a high touch game for Etienne, so we'll go under.

Post-bet analysis:  LOSS   This turned out to be the closest prop of this week's group, although the final result was inflated by the OT yardage gained in what could have been a game ended after four quarters.  With five minutes to go, Etienne looked to be stopped inside the LV 20 yard line, but slithered ahead for an extra 7 or 8 yards to get a key first down and top the prop number.  The Raiders never established a large lead here, and that and the OT led to Etienne getting a season-high 27 touches.

This prop selection is based on the reality that someone has to catch passes from QB Jayden Daniels in this game.  WR Terry McLaurin is once again out due to injury, and when this was the case in weeks 4-7, Lane proceeded to have games of 18, 16, 37, and 60 receiving yards in his absence.  That plummeted to zero last week on TMac's return - which must be the reason behind this strangely low number - but I think the opportunities will return this week.  If we look at the other options for Commanders WRs, Deebo Samuel has tailed off after a fast start, Chris Moore has managed to be an invisible man without a target in several games, and Luke McCaffrey works from the slot almost exclusively.  I think WAS is going to need to throw the ball to be competitive in this one versus a strong SEA run defense and an improving offense, so let's roll with Lane on a number that can be topped with just two catches.

Post-bet analysis:  WIN   We were confident that Lane would surpass this number based on the fact that it was below each of the four game totals that he posted the last time McLaurin missed time.  The Commanders elevation of former Titans first-round bust Treylon Burks from the practice squad sent this prop number down to 14.5 ahead of the game - but it didn't matter as Lane took in 3 receptions for 29 yards (Burks played but caught 1 pass for 14 yards) to clinch the prop in the 3rd quarter of this lopsided game vs SEA.