NFL Team Wins Props

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One of the most fun pre-Week 1 wagers is predicting NFL Team Wins. Why? The NFL constantly pushes towards parity. The prior year's worst teams get the best draft picks and the easiest schedules. The salary cap forces a continual reshuffling of talent through free agency. All of this contributes to movement in the win/loss category from year to year. Here are the pre-season Team Win Total prop bet picks we've placed for 2025:

NYG o5.5 wins (+125 DK) - Yes, the Giants have a tough schedule, but has anyone taken a look at the roster improvement over the last 2 years? The G-Men have added some real talent over the last two drafts and plucked some nice defensive Free Agency adds in EDGE Brian Burns and Safety Jevon Holland. Rookie Abdul Carter could be the havoc-wreaking element this D needs to become elite. And on offense, the Giants' biggest recent negative is now the starting QB in Indianapolis. In my mind, a doubling of wins to 8 this year is not out of the question for this club.

SEA o8.5 wins (+130 DK) - I've found the pre-season odds on Seattle to be baffling. Does anyone realize that this was a 10-7 team last year? This was in Mike McDonald's first year as a head coach. In the last 8 games of 2024, McDonald's defense was elite, allowing just 18.4 points a game. Enter a new offense led by the innovative Klint Kubiak and a new QB (Sam Darnold) who tore up the league into December last year. Oh yeah - the Seahawks face arguably the two weakest divisions in the NFC South and AFC South for 8 of their games this year.

SFO u10.5 wins (-115 FD) - As confounding as the oddsmakers' take on Seattle is, their outlook on division mates San Francisco is even more unfounded. This 6-11 team in 2024 is about even money to add 5 more wins this year despite the losses of linebacker Dre Greenlaw, safety Talanoa Hufanga, and cornerback Charvarius Ward as well as other key defensive players. Yes, Run CMC is healthy again in training camp, but who's catching the ball? Not WR Deebo Samuel (Commanders) or WR Brandon Aiyuk (still injured). The OL is pieced together behind 37-year-old Trent Williams. Maybe it all comes together behind the solid core of CMC, Purdy, Kittle, and Warner along with Kyle Shanahan's wizardry, but I'm not putting my money on a 5 game leap with that backdrop.

DEN o9.5 wins (+105 FD) - There's a new power rising in the AFC West to challenge KC's long dominance, and it's a well-constructed, well-coached unit assembled by Sean Payton. The Broncos were a surprise team last year at 10-7 in a year when division champ KC smoke and mirrored their way to 15 wins. An elite defense and a diversifying offense behind second-year Bo Nix likely finish with 11 or 12 wins this year despite the exceptional group of coaches in the division.

ARZ o8.5 wins (-110 DK) - I recognize that this is not a sexy bet, nor has betting the over on the Cardinals ever been historically profitable. But Jonathan Gannon has quietly taken a 4-13 group to 8-9 last year and has built a solid defense along the way. Meanwhile, he has added solid offensive weapons in TE Trey McBride and WR Marvin Harrison Jr. Throw in the super easy non-division matchups and I think the Cardinals can be one of three NFC West teams with double-digit wins this year.

Note:  DK=Draft Kings, FD=Fan Duel, EB=ESPN Bet.  All odds reflect the situation at time of the bet - you may not see the same numbers.  Always shop around amongst multiple sports book for the best line.

Want more season-long NFL prop bet picks ideas? Check out our Longshots prop bet picks page!