NFL Week 12 Props: We went 3-2 riding the super subs on AZ and CIN

Wow - we're sure discovering at whole lot about the Cardinals' offensive players with miserable Kyler Murray and underachieving Marvin Harrison Jr out of the mix aren't we?  Last week Wilson was targeted a ridiculous 18 times, catching 15 of them as Jacoby Brissett set the all-time NFL completion mark with 47 in a game!   NFL All-time record:  not Mahomes, not Brady, not Manning -- Jacoby is the completions king!  Here we're looking for Wilson to get at least half of those target numbers, and that would STILL be enough for him to top this yards prop number.  The JAX pass defense has been great to pick on all year, so that adds to the luster of this prop bet.  For what it's worth I also like #2 WR Greg Dortch's o25.5 prop, as last week he posted 6 catches for 66 yards.

Post-bet analysis:  WIN(x2)   We couldn't have been more on target with this pick, as Jacoby Brissett continued his remarkable QB second life, throwing for 317 yards in a hard-fought losing effort versus JAX.  Wilson crushed this prop total by halftime, ending up with 10 catches for 118 yards on a once again ridiculous 15 targets.  His co-henchman Greg Dortch also buried his super low prop number with a 6-53-1 line.  Again the Jaguars defense could not stop another passer.  We'll return for more goodness here I'm sure.

No Ja'Marr Chase? No problem!  Next in line is Andre Iosivas, AKA "the Romanian Rocket" who made the leap from Princeton in the Ivy League to a starting WR spot in the NFL.  Don't let the small school college fool you - Iosivas is a fast, strong athlete who has filled in well in the past when one of the CIN WRs has been out.  We see him as one of the top 2 targets in what should be a high scoring affair with the Patriots, and likely the more open one as top CB Christian Gonzalez will likely shadow #1 WR Tee Higgins. Whether it's Flacco or Burrow slinging it for the Bengals we think either way this number on Iosivas is much too low.  In three prior games with 5+ targets he made this number twice, and we certainly think he may see 7+ chances this week.

Post-bet analysis:  WIN   Is there any doubt that the Romanian Rocket always delivers?  Iosivas clinched this bet on a second half reception where he was motionless on the turf, yet he returned to catch additional passes - ending up 4 for 61 on 7 targets.  Note the original writeup suggested he was a lock at that number.  Item of note:  Tee Higgins went down with an injury this week, and it may be time to fire up the Rocket again across from Ja'Marr Chase as Joe Burrow re-assumes the reins for CIN.

Yeah -- after seeing the Raiders stink it up against DAL last week I imagine you don't feel great about betting this prop -- but hear me out on the logic.   Jeanty has continued to get carries this year as long as the Raiders remain close in the game, and this matchup with a woeful Browns offense led by Shadeur Sanders fits the bill.  In their last 3 games CLE has allowed 26, 24, and 24 carries to RBs - and in each case the lead back has gained 75+ yards.  Must be offensive powerhouses you say?  Nope, one of the games was against the Jets and Breece Hall -- who tallied 83 yards on 21 carries.   And what else are the Raiders going to do?  Let Geno chuck it?  NO NO NO!  I see enough carries for the young rookie RB to reach this number in a game which will likely not be fun to watch.

Post-bet analysis:  LOSS  Yeah - we're kicking ourselves for not playing Jeanty's rushing + receiving number, but we misestimated the Raiders' propensity to fall behind quickly in this one.  As it turned out, the rookie RB would get 17 carries - which should have been enough to top this number, but he fell 7 yards short in another poor gameflow for the LV offense.  Chip Kelley became the sacrificed head after yet another disastrous showing on offense for the Raiders.

Despite not having a TD catch this year, Otton has had a very consistent catch floor in 2025.  He's had at least 5 targets in 6 straight games, and had a string of 40+ yard games snapped last week with a 2 catch game at BUF.  We also like the defensive matchup this week, as the Rams do a pretty good job in defending the pass, but have been torched the last two weeks at TE by George Kittle (9 for 84 yards) and AJ Barner (10 for 70 yards).  With Matthew Stafford slinging it on the other offensive sideline, Baker Mayfield is going to need to keep pace.  Yes he'll have Egbuka and Godwin starting but Otton has proved to be his safety blanket under pressure thus far this year.  We anticipate that there will be enough volume here for Otton to top this prop.

Post-bet analysis:  LOSS   Just about everything that could possibly go wrong on this prop bet did versus the Rams on Sunday night.  The Rams opened the game by ripping down the field for a quick TD, then Otton proceeded to bobble and lose his first target for a pick 6 in the other direction - and the Rams rout was on.  Add in a Baker Mayfield shoulder injury on a meaningless half time Hail Mary attempt, and Otton would only tally 4 catches for 21 yards on 7 targets. Ugh.