NFL Week 13 Props: 3-2 as we rode RB receiving props!

I wasn't a big Travis Etienne fan to start 2025, but he's completely owned most of the touches in the Jacksonville backfield this season.  In the last two games he's carried 19 times for 73 yards and 15 times for 86 yards, and overall he's 8-3 on the season against his rushing prop.  He's facing TEN, who has given up this rushing total to an RB in 9 of 11 games this year, so we like Etienne's chances to top this total.

Post-bet analysis:  LOSS   Well we can't blame this prop loss on game flow, as JAX had complete control in this 25-3 smothering of the hapless Titans.  You'd expect more than a 12 rushes for 28 yards effort from Etienne in that type of win but it just didn't happen despite the positive trends.

Jonathan Taylor has never been a prolific receiving back, but he's quietly improved his catch numbers this year with Daniel Jones at QB.   Taylor is 8-3 on the year for his receiving prop totals, and has topped this number in 7 of 11 games.  The fierce HOU pass rush increases the likelihood that Daniel Jones will have to use his checkdowns in this week's game - and that should include several outlet passes to Taylor.

Post-bet analysis:  WIN   This was the first of our two RB receiving prop wins this week.  Taylor received a ton of touches in this tough loss to HOU, including 3 catches for 36 receiving yards to easily top this prop number.

Kyle Pitts HAS to step up with Drake London injured, right?  Well it didn't happen either of the last two weeks with Kirk Cousins leading the Falcons - and we have our doubts this week as well.  Over the last two weeks combined Pitts has managed just 4 catches for 39 yards. Oh but it's the weak-D Jets you say?  Well check this out - the Green Men have NOT allowed a TE to top 49 yards this entire season!  We feel good about the Under.

Post-bet analysis:  LOSS   We felt this was a solid bet given the Jets complete shutdown of TEs this year, but likely the peppier-than-expected NYJ offense behind Tyrod Taylor led to more of an aerial game.  Pitts collected 7 catches for 82 yards in his best performance OF THE SEASON in this game.

The Rams are rolling lately!  QB Matthew Stafford has been getting a lot of the media buzz, but RB Kyren Williams is also a major part of their offense in 2025.  This week he faces a weak-again CAR run defense, which has given up at least 83 yards to an RB in its last five straight games. With the Panthers' inconsistent offense facing the Rams' tough front we see lots of carries in store for LA's lead back this week.

Post-bet analysis:  WIN   This bet almost turned sour on us as Williams was hobbled in the second half for a short while while Blake Corum broke off a number of good runs against Carolina.  Thankfully Kyren returned to top this number in Q4, finishing with 72 yards on just 13 carries.

The Steelers have recently settled into a solid pattern of having Jaylen Warren run the ball and Kenneth Gainwell do all of the receiving work.  Gainwell is coming off of two very busy receiving weeks:  6 catches for 30 yards after a 7 for 81 yard perfomance.  He's topped 21 yards receiving in three of the last four weeks.  We think that this prop number is reachable regardless of a positive or negative gameflow versus the Bills.

Post-bet analysis:  WIN   Woof - we gutted this one out with Gainwell clinching this bet late in Q4 as the Steelers offense struggled vs BUF, running only 43 plays.  Still Gainwell managed 2 catches for 25 yards to top this number.  It would have been a lot less stressful to play the Aaron Rodgers UNDER prop, as he managed a mere 117 yards passing.