NFL Week 3 Props: A sick WR, fumble-itis, and a crazy cover

NOTE, I'M GOING TO REVOKE THIS PROP DUE TO NEWS: As of 5PM ET on 9/20, JSN is suddenly questionable with an Illness so proceed with caution as you may be betting on a sick WR.  Gametime is 4:25 ET on Sunday.  There's a star emerging in Seattle and most of the NFL world is unaware.  A 100 catch, 1,000 yard receiver last year, JSN has exploded out of the blocks in his third year with 100+ receiving yards in each of his first two 2025 games.  I'd not be surprised if he puts up top 3 WR numbers this year.  He's more than the lead WR in the Seahawks' passing game - he IS the Seahawks' passing game.  And QB Sam Darnold is more capable than he's given credit for.  We think JSN will top this total at home versus the outmanned Saints, as they've been feisty enough to stay competitive in games so far this year. 

Post-bet analysis:  NO BET  I hope you placed this prop and never looked back.  Despite this game turning into an early blowout, JSN got 99 yards receiving and won this prop in the first half.  While sick.  Stud.

Rhamondre Stevenson, presumed buried prior to Week 1 due to TreVeyon Henderson's pre-season flash, emerged last week and put up 142 total yards vs Miami.  We love Henderson but his pass protection issues are going to limit his use short-term.  Now the Patriots get a home matchup vs the Steelers, who offered gaping holes between the tackles for 100 yard rushing performances by Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker in the first two weeks.  With Steelers run stuffer DT Derrick Harmon being limited or out again this week, we think this prop is a lock if Stevenson gets 10 or more carries.

Post-bet analysis:  LOSS  It remains to be seen whether Stevenson would have converted this prop with either 0 or 1 fumbles -- but the second (goal line) fumble put him (and his 18 rushing yards) on the bench for the remainder of the game, where he watched TreVeyon Henderson get a career high 14 carries.  I will also note that the return of Harmon to the Steelers D Line was a boost, as the Pats did not run wild this week.

Baltimore welcomes Detroit to a MNF matchup on the harbor - and the two teams had mirror experiences the first two weeks:  A tough opening week loss at a fierce rival's home field, followed by a home blowout win against a division foe in Week 2.  The main difference is that the Lions offense was tamed for one of those two weeks, while the Ravens posted consecutive 41 point outings. I'm not a fan of Jared Goff outside the dome, and I think Baltimore has a clear edge with its experienced coordinators over the Detroit rookie staff.  I look for Baltimore to post 30+ but I'm not certain what Detroit will bring.

Post-bet analysis:  WIN  This was a crazy cover, as it took an unexpected late Montgomery TD , then a ridiculous Justice Hill 3rd and 26 conversion. That set up a late Lamar to Mark Andrews TD to get to 30, winning this prop by 0.5 point.

We'll look to stay perfect on K bets on the year with reliable  Steelers K Chris Boswell.   He's already booted five field goals through Week 2, and will be facing a very bendable Patriots defense in Foxboro this week.  We're not crazy about placing larger minus-odds bets, but the last couple of years we've seen Boswell fire multiple field goals on a consistent basis, proving that he's worth the premium.  In typical Tomlin mode, the score's likely to stay close the whole way through, so we expect to see more than a few FG attempts in this one.

Post-bet analysis:  LOSS  We drop to 2-1 on the season on K bets as mysteriously Boswell never got an attempt in this game.  (I don't remember ever having that happen with him on a wager!) The Patriots played a good defensive game, but not inside their own 40 as the Steelers found the end zone three times.