Our first prop bet of 2026 leverages last year's breakout star Michael Wilson of Arizona. Given the way that Wilson finished 2025 on fire we can't believe this low number. Check out these stats: 870 yards receiving over his last 10 games (87 yards per game), including topping 40 yards in 8 of those 10 games. Yes, the Cards may run a bit more this year with rookie RB Jeremiyah Love, but there will still be lots of passing in this Mike LaFleur offense led by QB Jacoby Brissett. This is our highest ranked prop play of the week.
Post-bet analysis: WIN It's nice to hit the first prop bet of the year - especially when we called this out as a ridiculous value. It's also nice to see that Wilson top his prop number in a Cardinals win (vs 2025 throw from behind stats) and in the post-Love offense. Wilson posted modest 5 catch for 56 yards numbers, but it was still easily above the prop target.
Last year Colts WR Alec Pierce quietly compiled a 1,000 yard receiving season, consistently topping his weekly prop numbers throughout the year -- including ten 50+ yard performances in his fifteen games played. Yet even when the Colts anted up $114M in a 4-year contract, the NFL community still whispered "he's not a real WR1". That's OK -- set his prop numbers low again this year, we'll continue to dial him up. We feel confident that Pierce will get enough looks in Shane Steichen's well-constructed offense.
Post-bet analysis: WIN We were banking on two things here: Pierce getting enough looks as the Colts newly signed WR1, and his 2025 record of outperforming his receiving prop numbers. On just 6 targets (59% of snaps) he had 4 catches for 61 yards to cash this prop ticket. Given that this was his first game back from off-season ankle surgery we'll expect higher snap and target numbers soon.
Geno Smith is a NY Jet again! Unfortunately, regardless of the uniform, he's prone to making turnovers on a regular basis as a QB. In his last 10 games with the Raiders in 2025, Geno tossed 8 picks, tossing at least one in 7 of those 10 outings. Here with a new offensive unit and a new coordinator early in the season we think it's highly likely that Geno tosses at least one in Game 1 on the road versus the Titans. (At least two other sportsbooks feel the same way, with much less generous odds on this bet than DraftKings.)
Post-bet analysis: LOSS The 2026 version of the Tennessee Titans did very little in Nashville this weekend to make Geno sweat, as the veteran was an efficient 19 of 24 for 215 yards with no interceptions. Who would have pegged a methodical NYJ week 1 win? A fine example of a good percentage bet (at -114) with a not-so-good outcome.
This year Captain Kirk fled the mess that is the Atlanta Falcons for the glitter gulch of Las Vegas. Unfortunately he leaves behind two stud targets in Drake London and Kyle Pitts. There's no one comparable to those two in LV, especially with Brock Bowers out for up to two games. Not that it has mattered for Kirk, who averaged 172 yards passing in ATL over his last 10 games, including a 21 of 31 for 173 yards against these same Dolphins. Expect a run-heavy game featuring two excellent backs in Jeanty and Achane.
Post-bet analysis: WIN I posted mostly offensive notes on Cousins above, but it was equally important to consider the possible game script. I thought it unlikely that LV would fall behind the Dolphins and have to go pass-heavy. Game 1 of the Jeff Hafley era showed that Miami is not a good football team, the Raiders grabbed a comfortable lead, and Cousins (160 pass yds) just handed the ball off to a winning bet.
Gainwell has been a solid contributor in his first two NFL stops in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, turning into a key contributor in the Steel City in 2025. We knew him as Kenneth then, but an offseason move to Tampa Bay has brought a rebrand as "Kenny" to go along with a new 2 year $14M contract. Though he'll split time with Bucky Irving we expect the Bucs to run often this week vs CIN behind their 'solid when healthy' O Line to keep the ball out of Joe Burrow's hands.
Post-bet analysis: LOSS A bit of a headscratcher usage-wise for Gainwell in this game in which TB fell behind 24-3 early. Bucs coach Todd Bowles kept him on the bench for almost the whole second half - despite Gainwell's elite pass catching ability out of the backfield. Bucky Irving ended up with the better run and pass numbers as a result, with Gainwell unable to add to his 5 rushes for 15 yards at halftime.
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