NFL Week 1 Props: We went 3-1 to start the year!

Last time we saw Joe Flacco in a Browns uniform he was slinging the ball all around the field in a late season surge that led Cleveland to the playoffs.  With an underrated WR duo of Jerry Jeudy and Cedric Tillman along with TE David Njoku you know the Browns are going to have to sling it a lot to keep up with the Joe-Burrow led juggernaut that is the Cincinnati Bengals.  Odds on this one were better earlier in the week but I still will take even money on Joe regaining his mojo vs a weak Bengals D.

Post-bet analysis: WIN  We were right on target here with Flacco and the weak Bengals D as Flacco threw for 291 yards.

I'm typically not backing QBs in their first live NFL game in any betting action, but this one seems like a layup.  We don't know if JJ can chuck it like a pro QB but his time at Michigan showed that he can bust a 3rd down run when needed.  I think Bears DC Dennis Allen throws a few unexpected looks at JJ in his first start, and JJ easily surpasses this rushing total -- which is set without any type of historical NFL game data.

Post-bet analysis:  WIN  It took a while, but JJ's 4th quarter 14 yard TD scamper was enough for him to reach 25 yards rushing on just two carries.

New NYJ head coach Aaron Glenn and OC Tanner Engstrand want to run the ball this year - a lot.  During their time in Detroit they witnessed the success of the Montgomery/Gibbs thunder and lightning approach, and there's been talk of recreating this in the Meadowlands.  We'll see if Glenn is true to his word and there's a 50/50 rushing split between Breece Hall and Allen.   If so, I think this is a solid play against a Steelers D missing run stuffing rookie Derrick Harmon.

Post-bet analysis: LOSS   We were correct that the Jets were able to run the ball vs the Steelers, but we had the wrong guy as Breece Hall went for 100+.  Allen managed just 9 yards on his 6 carries.

Houston has the proper ingredients for FG prop success - an above average kicker in Fairbairn and a very good defense that can force short drives.  This year's version of the Texans offense gives us more reason to foresee FG success:  Joe Mixon is out and the passing game outside of stud Nico Collins is short of proven weapons without Christian Kirk.  We'll take these plus odds on two or more FGs versus a solid Rams defense.

Post-bet analysis: WIN  There's almost nothing better than winning your prop bet before halftime!  All parts of our pre-bet analysis above rang true as Houston would only manage 3 FGs versus the Rams defense.