NFL Week 5 Props: 2-3 on five bets with three close finishes

Here's the list of leading RBs who did not top 50 rushing yards versus the elite Tampa Bay front line in this season's first 4 weeks:  Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall, and Saquon Barkley.  And yet Kenneth Walker (who essentially splits carries with Zach Charbonnet) has a rushing prop number of 50 yards?  The bet risk here is that Walker pops a long run or the Bucs offense melts down early under their mounting injury burden.  Either of these appear to be unlikely events, so I think that this makes for an excellent prop wager.

Post-bet analysis:  LOSS   We were correct about the limited carries that Walker would get, and at Tampa's 2.9 average YPC that would have been well under the prop number.  But unexpectedly this turned into an air-first battle, and Walker consistently found space throughout the game enroute to an 86 yard day.

In a game with two poor defenses, it's likely that both the Jets and Cowboys offenses are going to have to score points.  As bad as the Cowboys secondary has been this year, their rush defense versus scrambling quarterbacks might even be worse.  Enter Justin Fields averaging 59 rushing yards per game, with a 3-0 over record against his 2025 rushing props.  I expect the Jets to push hard to get their first win of the year at home versus a Lamb-less Dallas team, and I believe they'll rely on Fields' legs to carry them.

Post-bet analysis:  LOSS   Fields didn't find a lot of running room early as the early offensive game plan stalled, and the winless Jets dropped behind by a bunch forcing the offense into a throw it every down second half.   I had hope for some late garbage time scramble yards but it didn't materialize.

This is another "trend is your friend" bet, similar to the Fields bet above.  Kyler Murray has yet to top 220 passing yards in a game this year, despite heaving the ball 35 and 41 times during his club's last two losing efforts.  This game against the thus-far punchless Titans offense will likely require far fewer tosses from scattershot Kyler, as a shootout is unlikely.  Unless the notoriously unreliable Cardinals perform a home faceplant against the NFL's worst team, this one should be another under week for the Arizona QB.

Post-bet analysis:  WIN   This looked like a lost prop early in the second half as Murray passed the 200 yard mark early ... but that "old Cardinals magic" turned this one into a disastrous second half collapse with Arizona trying to run to preserve its dwindling lead. I laughed out loud when I saw that Murray ended up with 220 yards.  It's a W.

It hasn't been a banner FG year for Lutz, the veteran Broncos K who mysteriously only has one 'L' in his first name.  But that's been due to the high TD efficiency of the Broncos offense to date.  This week they face a tougher challenge in the Eagles, who have in 4 games forced 13 FG attempts versus only 8 extra point tries for opposing kickers.  I think Lutz will get a shot at two or more, and the flat even odds make this prop even more attractive.

Post-bet analysis:  WIN  It took until the very end, and the Sean Payton decision to go for two after the 4th quarter TD added extra stress, but Lutz  finally got a second chance.   Wil hit that late FG to put us over the top for another K prop win.  After five weeks we retain a 4-2 record on kicker props, and 5-9 on all others.

I view this game as being a low-scoring grind due to a number of factors: LA's O Line injuries, the absence of Terry McLaurin for WAS, and a stingy Chargers defense. You can also add in a potentially rusty Jayden Daniels after two weeks out with an injury. I initially considered the individual Ks in this matchup, but found Matt Gay (-130) and Cameron Dicker (-165) to be high-priced, so this much more generous combined kicker bet fit the bill. 

Post-bet analysis:  LOSS   Game was relatively low scoring as I expected.   I thought Dicker was a lock for 2 FGs,  but the LA offense struggled.  Matt Gay did his part, and there was a huge chunk of the 4th quarter where the 4th FG was in play.  Needless to say I was not thrilled by Dan Quinn's decision to go for it on 4th and 6 up by 10 points with less than 90 seconds left in the game.  Good bet, bad result.