A star rises in the TEN wilderness, but unless he's on your fantasy team you probably don't know. The WR selected 4th in the 2026 NFL draft has just pulled receiving weeks of 6 for 58 yards and 9 for 145 yards. These games happened on 9 and 12 targets respectively. If Carnell Tate catches 6 passes this week he easily tops this prop number. Worried about the Texans' D? You shouldn't be. This once top-tier unit has allowed a stunning 830 yards to WRs in 4 games, second worst in the NFL. This looks like a slam dunk OVER.
Post-bet analysis: LOSS We were counting on QB Cam Ward to keep up his high target rate to Tate as he did the prior two weeks. But the Texans D Line came to play, logging four sacks and lots of pressure. Tate got only 5 targets, catching just 1 pass for 6 yards on an another weak day for the Titans offense.
Vikings RB Aaron Jones has discovered the fountain of youth in the form of an injury to fellow RB Jordan Mason. Over the last three weeks, he's carried the ball 20, 17, and 23 times, topping 94 yards twice in those games. The Saints defense he faces this week just got shredded for 200+ yards and 5 TDs vs ATL on MNF. And if you're Kevin O'Connell who are you entrusting with keeping your undefeated record intact? The solid Jones or the always-an-adventure QB Kyler Murray? Verdict to Jones. OVER.
Post-bet analysis: WIN This bet went as scripted, as the Vikes consistently fed Jones to the tune of 25 carries for 113 yards and a touchdown. MIN's defense clamped down on the Saints offense throughout the game, allowing the run game to work at full tilt over the whole 60 minutes.
We noted earlier that the East Coast weather and coaching decisions scuttled several initial prop opportunities, and we stayed away from playing the Jameis Winston OVER prop and the Bo Nix UNDER prop -- which (of course) both hit.
We also had zero luck with our laddering suggestions of Tate and Bijan. Ugh - we'll improve next week!
We honestly can't believe the two game offensive explosion that the Falcons just unleashed ! When an OLine dominates the way they have recently, we're going to ride the star RB in our props. Bijan has rushed for 339 yards in the last two games, averaging 7+ yards a carry. At that type of YPC, it won't take many carries for this sub-90 rushing number to get surpassed. We also see positive number of carries coming with the absence of BAL QB Lamar Jackson and the ATL DLine's strength vs the run (3.1YPC). OVER.
Post-bet analysis: LOSS A frustrating prop beat, as Bijan popped a long Q3 run to sit at 12 carries for 84 yards going into the 4th quarter with a Falcons lead. Easy peasy, right? Nope. Bijan would get 5 more carries totaling only 2 yards, as ATL ran into blitzing Raven defenders over and over. But it went to OT and each team gets to play offense - YES? Nope. Let's have Tua throw it three times cold off the bench. Pick. Game over. Bijan ended up with 17 carries for 86 yards. Ugh.
It wasn't long ago that we were crowing about secret prop wonder Michael Wilson, with absurd prop targets under 42 yards (see Weeks 1 and 2), but the books have caught up. Wilson comes off two 89+ yard efforts on a crazy 30 targets! Now he gets to face the atrocious Lions pass D that we've picked on for QB prop wins 2 weeks in a row. Yes, I know S Brian Branch may be returning to the DET secondary - but there are major coverage issues to solve there. Even at 74.5 we'll bet on the combination of Brissett to Wilson on the OVER.
Post-bet analysis: LOSS The pre-game announcement of a pending trade involving fellow WR Marvin Harrison Jr should have been a plus, right? It didn't turn out to be so, as Wilson would be targeted just 7 times, catching only 4 for 30 yards in an underwhelming Cardinals performance. We'll step back from betting Wilson props for a few weeks to see if the trade changes the way teams defend against him.
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