NFL Week 7 props: 3-3, some easy winners amid JAX letdown

The Rams' offense runs through stud WR Puka Nacua.  But this week LA finds itself without its star receiver in London facing Jacksonville.  I foresee Sean McVay leaning heavily on his second brightest offensive star in this one, possibly getting him the ball as a receiver more than usual.  A couple of other positive factors:  it looks like there will be some constant rain during Sunday's game, and Williams' backup Blake Corum is still a bit dinged up.  Look for 20-25 touches for Kyren. 

Post-bet analysis:  LOSS   It's clear that the blame for this loss (at least in my mind) lies on the JAX defense and on the shoulders of QB Trevor 'Headband' Lawrence.  In their UK home away from home they should have put up some type of fight against the Rams from 8 time zones away ... but it was fold and flail most of the game.  Kyren posted a decent 65 yards on his 14 touches, but there's no way Blake Corum gets 12 carries unless the Jags are down 21-0 and impotent at half.

Pierce and the high-scoring Colts offense face the Chargers in LA this week in what I expect to be a high-scoring battle.  As the deep threat in the WR group Alec returned to action last week to once again top his receiving prop, moving to 4-0 on the year despite just 2 catches for 48 yards.  In addition the Colts will be without injured WR Josh Downs as an option for Daniel Jones.  For his four active games, Pierce has logged between 36 and 68 receiving yards each game - so this week's number is well within reach.   

Post-bet analysis:  WIN  There's nothing like winning an over prop by halftime - and with Pierce it took a single 48 yard catch to top the number.  Alec would keep his crazy YPC average high by putting in a 5 for 98 day versus the Chargers defense.  We'll continue to keep an eye on Pierce, who is 5-0 on receiving Over props this year.

First-round rookie WR Matthew Golden got off to a relatively slow start to his NFL career with only two catches through two games.  That has changed over his last three, however - as he's topped at least 52 receiving yards in each with increasing targets.  The Cardinals' secondary has played decently even though it has been beaten up by injury in recent weeks.  I see the Packers emerging from their bye week with the intent to get their young WR the ball.

Post-bet analysis:  LOSS  This was a tough one since Golden had been targeted 5 and 6 times in his last two games but only got four versus AZ.  He caught all 4 for 37 yards, but that didn't do us any good as we fell 11.5 yards short of the prop number. If we're honest with our bet here we misread both the trend in Golden's involvement as well as the toughness shown by the Cardinals secondary.

Tony Pollard has been a relative bright spot on a listless Tennessee Titans offensive ship this year.   The woeful Titans have produced just five offensive TDs as team in six weeks.  So why take the under here?  Two reasons:  the Patriots defense has stuffed RBs to only 62 yards per game this year, and Tyjae Spears has returned to the TEN backfield.  When the Titans fell behind last week, Spears (as the primary receiving back) took more snaps than Pollard.  With a similar game script on tap here, I like this under bet.

Post-bet analysis:  WIN  We were completely on top of this bet on both primary reasons plus the negative game script.  Pollard would have 6 carries for 18 yards in the first half and as the game got away from TEN he'd get no more carries, ending with 43 inconsequential receiving yards.  Tyjae Spears would also get 8 touches to Pollard's 12 overall.  Too bad we don't get bonus payouts for nailing all the bet reasons.

We're placing a second overseas bet this week in the JAX vs LAR game, this time on Jaguars K Cam Little.  On the year the Rams have allowed 14 FG attempts but only 8 XP attempts to opponents, and their defense continues to be active and disruptive.  Based on what I've seen over the past few weeks I don't think Trevor Lawrence is the guy who breaks this trend by leading his team to the end zone repeatedly.  No, I see this one as a wet low-scoring affair in London with more than a few FG attempts in store.

Post-bet analysis:  LOSS  Two key early game moments sunk this bet (aside from general 'Headband' ineptness mentioned previously):  Faced with a 4th and 3 on their first drive of the game deep in Jags territory, Sean McVay rolled the dice with a Stafford toss to Kyren Williams rather than kicking a FG in the London rain.  LA's first TD soon followed.  Shortly after a second Rams TD Little attempted and missed a FG from 50 yards out, leaving a short field for the Rams to go up 21-0 and turn the lights out on more kicks.

We're looking for a little Fitz-magic here from the new Panthers K this week in New York.   The Panthers offense has been moving the ball the last couple of weeks (albeit vs DAL and MIA) and they get more parts back this week with WR Jalen Coker and RB Chuba Hubbard.  But this is a wager against the Jets who have allowed 16 FG attempts in 6 games.  5 of 6 opposing kickers have hit 2 or more FGs this year vs. the green men of the Meadowlands.  Add in a struggling Jets offense and we really like the sum of factors here for more FGs this week for CAR at great odds.

Post-bet analysis:  WIN  The Jets have given very little to their fans this year, but have given greatly to those who have bet against them.  We captured some Fitz-magic on this wager as the Jets D did a decent job of bottling up the Panthers at home but once again failed to move the ball, eventually benching Justin Fields.  Make it 6 of 7 kickers to pop two or more FGs through against Gang Green, bringing us to 5-5 on our K props this year.