The pole position prop each week is often our favorite pick of the bunch. When we saw Love at this number we locked it in on Thursday. At most books you'll now see 280.5 or higher. We're pumped as this is versus a DET defense that has given up 320 YPG on average for the first six weeks of the season. Yes, the Lions are off a bye and S Brian Branch and GB RB Josh Jacobs are back - but Love has been locked in, and Watson/Golden have been most explosive WR duo in the NFL in 2026. We love the OVER in a shootout.
Post-bet analysis: LOSS Ugh -- this was an absolutely painful prop beat, as Jordan Love had racked up 274 pass yards on his way to tying the game up with DET midway through the 4th quarter. A GB stop would be a win, as would a DET score. But somehow the Lions made multiple first downs without scoring over the rest of the game. Jahmyr Gibbs taking a knee inside the 5 on third and 6 to seal a final FG was an awful prop bet ending.
The Saints' Kendre Miller logged a career high 20 carries last week for 70 yards. So why the under bet? Context. Even in games where Miller was given a leading role his next highest total was 11. He's also been highly inefficient, as 30 carries over the last two games have netted 100 yds, a 3.3 YPC. Those two stats, along with a sagging D that gives up points and we're looking at NO needing to throw to match an improved PIT offense. Will Miller catch passes? Nope. He's had 0 rec yds in 4 of his last 6 games with a max of 10 yds. UNDER
Post-bet analysis: WIN We were all over this one as predictably the Steelers defense completely stuffed the run game. Miller ended up with 6 yards on his 8 carries, and the team had a paltry 18 yards rushing on 17 carries. That's hard to do! We may have invited disaster on a normal rushing day by adding in the receiving, as Miller surprised by catching 3 passes for 22 yards, but it all summed to 28 yards and a comfortable prop win.
We'll stick with the Steeler-Saints matchup and find a completely opposite picture for the RB1 on the other side of the ball. Warren has been fantastic for PIT, rushing for 371 yards in the last 4 games. Yes, the return of RB Rico Dowdle will siphon off a few carries, but the Saints are giving up 5.0 yds per carry in 2026, and even a 14 carry game as Warren got last week will top this number. We see a couple of good size chunk runs here as the NO defense struggles to stop both the run and the pass in this matchup. OVER.
Post-bet analysis: WIN Can the NFL play more games in Paris? As well as the Kendre Miller UNDER went, this one was also a smashing win with Warren logging 82 rush yards by halftime on his way to an 18 carry, 101 yard performance. He also logged 2/3 of the RB carries, as Rico Dowdle got just 9. We felt that the running game matchup between these two teams was a complete mismatch, and it was a 100% accurate call.
Brock Purdy has been playing at an MVP level in leading his Niners team to an unexpected 6-0 start. More impressively, he's done it in Brady / Mahomes like style - as regardless of who is on the receiving end, he's completing the pass. This feels like a possible letdown for SFO versus an ATL that needs a win to stay in their division race. Shootout potential looms if Michael Penix gets hot, and we're betting that ATL's above-average run defense will force SFO to throw to Brandin Cooks, Christian Kirk, or whoever. OVER.
Post-bet analysis: WIN Now on Monday morning as we re-read our pre-bet analysis we're wondering why we didn't take ATL on the Moneyline! The SFO letdown did occur in the dome, helped a bit by a Christian McCaffrey injury for about half the game. Nonetheless, the factors materialized for a game where Purdy had to toss the ball 40 times for 288 yards to nine different receivers. Since it was the yards we were looking for, it was a win!
The Cowboys struggles have become a lot more obvious over the last 2 weeks with ugly losses to Tampa Bay and Green Bay as the offense has joined the defense in struggling versus opponents. A trip to rowdy Philadelphia (even vs a wounded Eagles team) on MNF doesn't seem to be a "get right" game. At the root of the DAL problems has been a meager running game as Javonte Williams has not topped 65 rushing yards in 7 of the last 8 games. PHI D rises up and gets enough offense to limit RB carries and keep this UNDER.
Post-bet analysis: LOSS This was a tough finish to a promising prop week, as our 3-0 start dissolved to a 3-3 finish during this MNF game. The Cowboys came out pounding the ball on the ground early, and Williams almost earned this number by halftime, despite giving up more than a few carries to RB2 Tyler Goodson. Ultimately this was the first 100+ yard game for Williams since late 2025. We're still doing well on UNDER bets, 5-2 so far this year.
Everyone is scared of Minnesota Vikings DC Brian Flores. NFL offenses are terrified of his blitzes. Roger Goodell and NFL lawyers are terrified of his lawsuit against the league. This is a bet into the teeth of non-stop blitz terror, buoyed by three numbers: 9, 9, and 11 - the number of targets that Keenan Allen has seen over the last 3 games, most of them short Daniel Jones dumpoffs. With TE Tyler Warren out, someone catches the ball when the Vikes send 7 guys. Maybe Allen w 7 catches at 7 yards each for 49 yards and a prop OVER?
Post-bet analysis: LOSS Well - the Vikings certainly brought the defensive heat down on Daniel Jones this week. What was disappointing was the way the veteran QB couldn't find effective outlet receivers to beat the waves of blitzers. After averaging 9.6 targets per game over the past 3 outings, Keenan Allen only saw 3 targets in this game in which his QB threw for only 108 yards. A few more targets would have topped this number.
We use cookies to analyze website traffic and optimize your website experience. By accepting our use of cookies, your data will be aggregated with all other user data.