We're riding a trend this week with QB Bryce Young facing the porous DET pass defense. After surrendering 658 yards in Weeks 1 and 2, the Lions gave up 321 more to Geno Smith and the Jets in Week 3. We see little risk of CAR grabbing an early lead and settling in with the run game, as the Lions can certainly score and score on a below average defense, which also just lost top CB Jaycee Horn for the season. OVER.
Post-bet analysis: WIN This is our second straight comfortable win playing a QB prop vs the Detroit Lions pass defense. Even without two of his top WRs Bryce Young had this number covered about halfway through the 3rd quarter vs this struggling DET unit. Young ended up with 307 yards passing on the night. We hope you laddered this bet (per our suggestion) for even better returns.
This one might look strange at first, with the 1-2 Commanders having given up 24, 31, and 37 points in 3 games - but it's all been through the air. WAS incredibly is only giving up 3.3 YPC to RBs, with 0 TDs allowed in 2026. Meanwhile they are one of the worst pass defenses, allowing 11 pass TDs. Shane Steichen will attack this defense via the air in a likely high-scoring game. We don't see Taylor getting the carries to top this total. UNDER.
Post-bet analysis: LOSS Our only losing prop pick this week got derailed by a 1st quarter injury to WAS backup QB Marcus Mariota. Although 7th round rookie QB Athan Kaliakmanis played as well as could be expected in his first NFL game, the Colts leaned on the running game as they weren't chasing points. Taylor got 20 carries for 95 yards - missing our UNDER by 5.5 yards.
Top BAL WR Zay Flowers shook off injury concerns in Week 3 to post yet another receiving total of 68+ yards, making it 5 of his last 6 games. The Ravens passing offense has looked more consistent this year under a new OC, and the TEN defense gave up more than 68 yards vs WR1s in Weeks 1 and 2. (We'll throw out the numbers vs a terrible Jameis Winston in the rain in Week 3). This one feels like a high-confidence OVER.
Post-bet analysis: WIN Here's another trend-related prop that clinched fairly early in the game. Zay Flowers and QB Lamar Jackson have had a great connection over the last 8 games, as Flowers has piled up 796 receiving yards, over 99 per game. Thankfully Jackson had fired plenty of passes Zay's way before his injury - and Flowers ended up posting an 8-118-1 line.
Seizing on the same factors that prompted our Taylor UNDER bet above, we will make a similar prop bet on CIN RB Chase Brown vs JAX. The Jaguars defense has yielded a stingy 3.1 YPC to RBs so far this year, so it's more successfully attacked through the air, as DEN did in a week 2 win. Brown will get a lot of yardage in this one, but we're expecting receiving yards in what could be a 60+ point shootout in Cincinnati. UNDER
Post-bet analysis: WIN We really love it when an UNDER prop never comes close to the target number. This was certainly the case in Cincinnati this week, as RB Chase Brown had no room to run vs the Jaguars, ending up with just 10 rushing yards on 9 attempts for the game. The Bengals leaned heavily on QB Joe Burrow (428 pass yds) instead, but still fell short vs JAX.
We don't often post MNF picks here on the nflprop site, but we honestly couldn't find a more compelling play that this Chris Olave matchup versus the Falcons. The Saints' Shough-Olave combination has been on fire since late 2025, with Olave topping this prop number in five straight games. Atlanta should keep it competitive with Michael Penix at QB, and their D just gave up 96+ yards to two GB WRs a week ago. OVER.
Post-bet analysis: WIN Phew! The closing stats on Chris Olave's night (8 catches, 116 yards) hides the fact this prop win wasn't clinched until the late 4th quarter in a blowout loss to ATL. Specifically, Olave had 83 yards receiving until a diving catch on a 4th and long play with the Saints down 44-17 in their final drive. Score one for the good guys!
Out of the five bets we thought these 2 had the best shot at also cashing higher payoff levels, and we were right on target! Hope you also cashed some higher yardage-level tickets on these:
- Bryce Young OVER (307 actual, 246.5 O/U), as DET is giving up 326 pass yards per game in 2026.
- Chris Olave OVER (118 actual, 85.5 O/U), based on an elite target rate
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