NFL Props Week 4: 2-2, bad QB luck hits passing props

Oh to be a Cowboys fan ahead of Week 4:  a pass defense that can't stop anyone, an injured CeeDee Lamb, and your ex-defensive superstar coming to town in green and white leading a top NFL defense.  Dak is going to have to chuck it a lot in this game, and he'll probably have very little time to do so.  That's why I like this Turpin prop, as he's one of the few explosive players on the Dallas roster - and I expect a lot of three and four receiver sets in this one.

Post-bet analysis:  WIN  This would have been an easy win if a deep early pass completion to Turpin hadn't been called back for holding, but as it turned out he ended up with a 3  catches for 30 yards stat line which was enough to grab a W  in this one.

Thus far through Week 3, Drake Maye has averaged over 260 yards per game passing and is 3-0 over his passing prop number each week.  So 208.5 against the Panthers?  Sign me up.  I can only guess that the number is this low because of the threat of a big early lead or a run-heavy offensive showing versus Carolina; thus far the Patriots have demonstrated no propensity for either of these - so I think we're looking at another week of Maye dropping back and firing.

Post-bet analysis:  LOSS  Tough to lose this one as the Pats ran up 42 points on Carolina yet Drake Maye only ended up attempting 18 passes as the special teams and defense took yards off of numerous drives.  Still, Maye came really close to getting to the number, ending with 203 before being pulled midway into the 4th with a blowout lead.

If we've learned one thing about this 2025 Ravens team through Week 3, it's that they can give up as many points as they score.  This 1-2 has already given up 38 or more points twice.   And although the 1-2 Chiefs have not been a juggernaut, this is the most forgiving bunch they'll face so far.  Will the Ravens lean on Derrick Henry here?  I expect more tough sledding for the King, as the Chiefs have allowed just 87 team rushing yards per game this year.  So all signs point to Lamar throwing it around in this battle royale to avoid a 1-3 start for both teams.

Post-bet analysis:  LOSS  Another correct read on the game flow here, but Lamar came up injured in Q3, preventing him from taking a shot at this number facing a deficit versus the Chiefs.  His numbers plus Cooper Rush's came close to the prop total, but the injury left us with another L.

In the year of the robo-leg, where NFL kickers routinely boot 50+ yard field goals, none has kicked more FGs than newcomer Spencer Shrader.  The Colts new K has gone an amazing 11 for 12 in three weeks, a 68 attempt pace for the season.  And in this matchup the Rams (who have allowed 7 FGs in 3 weeks) seem to offer a good scenario for more kicks this week from SS.  The tough LA front seven will be the most challenging defensive front that Daniel Jones has faced this year.  I see red-zone FGs here for the  Colts this week, making this a comfortable K prop.

Post-bet analysis:  WIN  Our K props move to 3-1 on the season on K bets as the reliable Shrader booted a pair in a very close game.  We'll continue to consider Spencer going forward here in the K category, as the young Colts K may turn out to be this season's Chris Boswell, still averaging > 3 attempts per game.