NFL Week 8 Props: 3-1 as our game analysis (-ATL) nailed it!

The Texans offense has been a tough watch this year through seven weeks.  An offensive line with a ton of questions during training camp has failed to jell thus far.  Adding to the struggles is a weak running game that is muddling through without injured 2024 workhorse Joe Mixon.  But QB CJ Stroud can still sling it, though he's been without stud WR Nico Collins for several games as well as WR Christian Kirk. This week both players will be watching from the sidelines again -- the likely reason for this absurdly low passing prop number.  Stroud has topped this number in 5 of 6 games, and a banged up Niners defense is not mounting a consistent pass rush without Nick Bosa.  What about the second tier receiving corps?  The group of Hutchinson, Noel and Higgins played almost all of last week's game as Stroud passed for 229 yards against a strong SEA defense.  I see this Stroud eclipsing this prop number in a must-win game for 2-4 HOU.

Post-bet analysis:  WIN   We had this bet in the bank by halftime as Stroud connected with his young receivers easily against the undermanned Niners.  Additionally we were right on target about the Texans' demeanor in this one as they jumped in front early and clamped down on defense to get an important win.  This low prop number kept moving up pre-snap to as high as 215 at some sites, but in the end Stroud's 318 yards blew the prop level away.

Let's look at TE Jonnu Smith's stats over the last two years, as it's great example of how offensive scheme can impact numbers:  in 2024 with the Dolphins Jonnu was a top 5 TE, with 88 catches for 884 yards; this year with the Steelers?  Not so good - 20 catches for 117 yards - with no missed time due to injury.  The issue?  Steelers OC Arthur Smith loves tight ends, often playing 3 or 4 in a game and giving them all targets.  For some reason the oddsmakers have place a 30.5 yard prop number on Smith this week despite his SEASON-HIGH receiving yards total being just 28.  In fact, Jonnu is 7-0 in hitting the under against his number in 2025.  Now I fully recognize that THIS may be the week that the talented Jonnu tops his prop number - as PIT TEs continue to be heavily targeted by Aaron Rodgers.  But if I'm wrong betting this trend I'll live with it.  I also like the fact that WR2 Calvin Austin is back to grab some extra targets.  Under is the bet.

Post-bet analysis:  WIN  Jonnu Smith managed to tally only 2 catches for 17 yards on 3 targets in the loss vs the Packers on Sunday night.  The full TE rotation was on display early as PIT used a 3 TE formation (without Smith) for their early drives.  In fact, Jonnu was so invisible at the start that I checked the inactive list in Q2 to be sure he was playing!  A total of just 7 targets for all PIT TEs last night as both WR2s were busy.  Jonnu is now 8-0 on Under receiving props this year!

Other NFL teams have struggled on offense this year but TEN has been an absolute disaster.  The shiny QB hopes that accompanied #1 draft pick Cam Ward as the season started have faded in the reality that seven weeks later he has worse stats than the Titans' last QB Will Levis had at this point in 2024.  With their two best defenders injured the Titans likely won't be able to stop the Colts juggernaut offense, so Cam will throwing a lot again - without his (as labeled) #1 WR Calvin Ridley who is injured.  Enter rookie Elic Ayomanor who has steadily seen target totals of 7,5, and 5 over the last three weeks.  Way back in Week 1 Ayomanor topped this total vs these same Colts, catching 4 passes for 38 yards.  We also hear that interim coach Mike McCoy is working to simplify the passing offense for Ward to get him to take more short throws.  Even a small improvement from Ward in maintaining drives may result in more catches on this prop.

Post-bet analysis:  WIN  We nailed this one as well, as the Titans were overmatched early and Cam Ward would attempt 38 passes on the day.  Ayomanor was targeted 8 times in Ridley's absence - his highest in 4 games - hauling in 4 passes for 52 yards.  No different results for the dreadful Titans but a successful prop win for us.

We go to Atlanta for this week's sole kicker prop, selecting Falcons K Parker Romo - who strangely until this year was known as 'John Parker Romo'.  He had a number of Vikings FGs under that name last year -- I'm not sure why the change.  Anyway, the generous Dolphins' defense has given up points in all kinds of ways this year:  through the air, on the ground, and even through the uprights -- allowing a total of 18 attempted FGs through the first seven weeks.  MIA has allowed multiple FG attempts in a game in an astounding 6 out of 7 weeks, for an 87.5% rate.  This week they face an Atlanta offense that offers an ideal formula for FG attempts:  a group of very good skill players led by a young QB who has been erratic at times, stalling drives.  If he gets attempts, K Romo should get the job done in the weatherproof dome.  And don't freak out at the -135 price tag here -- this bet is being priced as 57% likely to hit, but as I note above the actual occurrences vs MIA this year are higher.

Post-bet analysis:  LOSS  Ah, the perils of making prop bet picks on a Friday when injuries are still pending.  Do you notice above where I note that the ATL offense is 'led by a young QB who has been erratic'?  Unfortunately QB Michael Penix was inactive, replaced by 'an old QB who looks past his prime', Kirk Cousins.  The late scratch of WR Drake London didn't help either, but not moving the ball against Miami?  A head-scratching K prop loss.