NFL Week 3 Props: A tough 1-3 week

The shockingly woeful 0-2 Chargers head east to face off vs the red-hot Bills in Buffalo. In  two weeks it seems that the entire NFL fan base has soured on QB Justin Herbert and new OC Mike McDaniel. I'm sure that coach Jim Harbaugh would love to re-establish his run game this week, but the Bills have allowed a mere 3.5 YPC vs RBs this year - including just 52 to Jahmyr Gibbs in Week 2 so it's to the air we go (again).  Last week the Bolts lost both starting TEs, leaving the "no-block but good receiver" Gadsden as their only healthy option. We've seen him produce when featured in the past, and we expect once again that the Chargers will be chasing points versus Josh Allen and team all day. OVER.

Post-bet analysis:  LOSS   The game flow in this matchup was a lot different than expected, as BUF turned the ball over 5 times - leaving no passing garbage time for a safe target like Gadsden. It also seemed that McDaniel schemed up a lot more 3 WR formations, as WR Tre Harris saw a lot of targets and catches.  Gadsden was targeted 3 times, and had a crucial drop on an early drive that may have detracted from further looks. He ended up with a 0-0 line on the game. We certainly feel now that this unpredictable and ineffective Chargers offense is one to be avoided on prop Over bets going forward.

After two NFL weeks, it's time to put an end to turning on a sports talk show and enduring another hot take segment on "Is Drake Maye done / washed up / just average?" The magical 2025 season seems far away, but a potential shootout vs JAX may change some minds. Teams can't run vs the Jaguars, getting only 3.2 YPC - but Denver's Bo Nix threw for 288 yards last week versus this defense's softer side. With last week's loss of starting OL Mike Onwenu we expect OC Josh McDaniels will scheme up shorter throws for Maye as the offensive focus.  The game flow vs JAX also appears more favorable than versus an elite SEA defense or a punchless PIT offense last week. OVER.

Post-bet analysis:  LOSS   Who was happy to see Patriots backup QB Tommy DeVito enter the game midway through the fourth quarter to take over for Drake Maye?  Certainly not us, as that was likely the difference between missing and making the 222.5 yard prop total, as Maye headed to the bench with 199 yards. We certainly expected a more competitive team effort from the Pats, but it was not to be - as they made bad plays and mistakes in all three phases of the game in the Jacksonville heat.

Although we certainly recognize the betting danger of relying too heavily on the NYJ offense, this prop bet is primarily a play vs the DET pass defense.  During the first two weeks the Lions have allowed 658 passing yards.  Other positive factors heading into this matchup: the Jets O-Line has been solid, they may have found a WR2 in Adonai Mitchell (12 targets last week), and Geno is coming off a game last week where he chucked it 41 times for 247 yards. The game flow here has all of the makings of a "get well" game for DET, which is essentially one play away from being 0-2 on the season - so we expect the Jets to be playing catch up, and will go with the OVER.

Post-bet analysis:  WIN   This was a comically easy win, as Geno Smith methodically picked apart the weak shell that currently presents itself as the Detroit Lions pass defense.  Even without his WR2, who was a gameday injury scratch, Smith and the Jets still piled up 322 passing yards - which is slightly below the season average for the Lions D.  We'll continue to keep an eye on opportunities to play props against the NFL's worst defense vs QBs. 

We're bookending our earlier pick of Gadsden as an injury fill-in for the BUF-LAC game with a second "super sub" in the same matchup. Top WR DJ Moore has an AC Joint sprain, and next up WR Keon Coleman missed practice this week with an ankle injury, leaving old reliable Khalil Shakir as the likely primary outside target. While TE Dalton Kincaid has erupted over the first two games for the second most TE-receiving yards (225) in Weeks 1 and 2 over the last 25 seasons, we expect the LAC defense to take note.  We've certainly seen this movie before with Shakir, and the Boise State product has stepped it up in both regular season and post-season matchups. OVER.

Post-bet analysis:  LOSS   This bet proved to be a great example of how difficult it is to read the tea leaves of NFL injury reports during the practice week. We'd seen catastrophic descriptions of the injuries to Moore and Coleman during the week, but both ended up starting and playing -- leaving little room for Shakir to get the snaps we expected.  He tallied a mere 1 catch for 3 yard total on just three targets in the Bills stop and start offensive effort.