NFL Season Longshot Props: Top Picks for the Season

Joe Burrow can certainly chuck a football, and he plays in an offensive system with weapons that support a huge passing game. For this reason I like Burrow over a number of other top contenders whose teams are looking to be run first: Mahomes and Herbert just to name two. I like Joe Cool's matchup vs his division opponents' pass defenses as well -- a big factor as it accounts for 6 of a team's 17 regular season games. Burrow should be a contender all year here IF he stays healthy.

I was thrilled to see Draft Kings offer this pre-season prop, and the conditions couldn't be better.  Rookie S Thieneman has been wowing in Bears camp, and his opportunity to hit this prop couldn't be better.  New free agent safety Coby Bryant is out for 4-6 months with a knee injury, leaving the ballhawking Thieneman (8 picks in 39 college games) to patrol the middle of Dennis Allen's Bears D.  And, oh yeah, that's exactly where former Bears S Kevin Byard had 7 interceptions in the 2025 regular season.

Fresh off nabbing Mike Vrabel in this prop last year I'm going with a trio of coaches are well-positioned at good payouts to compete for the award in 2026. Kellen Moore tooks his lumps early as a first year head coach, but his Saints caught fire late, finishing strong at 6-11. His profile of a young, well-liked coach taking a sub-500 team to a winning record fits the award well. Liam Coen and DeMeco Ryans have teams with a one-sided perception (JAX-O, HOU-D) that are in the hunt for an AFC #1 seed if they improve the other side.

This is a no-brainer bet at a +1200 price.  There are 16 teams in the NFC, meaning if they picked the #1 seed out of a hat each team's odds would be +1500.  DAL is MUCH better than that - a clear top 5 offense and a recently rebuilt defense with a rising star coordinator in Christian Parker.  And wouldn't it be just SO Cowboys-like to have a spectacular 14 or 15 win season to grab a #1 playoff seed, then have some horrible playoff meltdown to SEA or DET? That's why this is not a 'win the NFC' bet!

Through 8 weeks of the 2025 season, Shane Steichen's 7-1 Indianapolis Colts were the talk of the NFL. His stud RB Jonathan Taylor was the top RB, and ex-Giant QB Daniel Jones was reviving his career leading a juggernaut offense. Then the wheels came off when Jones suffered a season-ending injury and the defense couldn't hold its own. Well, Steichen, Jones, and Taylor are back to fire up their high-powered offense. Will it be enough? At nearly 4 to 1 I'll pay to find out.

What if a 4th year RB with the highest Yards Per Carry average (5.62) in NFL history landed on a team with a new young QB and a non-descript WR group? That's where De'Von Achane finds himself in Miami. Yes, given the prospects of this team you'll likely need an Eric Dickerson, Todd Gurley, or Chris Johnson type nearly-2000 yard season, but Achane has the talent to do it. [You might also consider Achane for Offensive POY at a juicy +6000]