2026 NFL Team Wins Props: Our Season Picks

Is this Cincinnati's year to shine in the AFC North? It's now or never for Zac Taylor's club with a Harbaugh-less Ravens team, a Tomlin-less Steelers unit along with the rudderless Browns. The Bengals signing of DT Dexter Lawrence and other key players just need to make the defense an average unit to improve the W-L record. I loved Cincy's second half surge last year. With a full year of Joe Burrow I think they top this number if the start is good and the division foes take a while to gain their footing.

The Texans fielded perhaps the league's most ferocious defense last year (only Seattle and Denver were close) and won 9 straight games to finish the season 12-5. They also rolled the Steelers in a playoff win. So why is their number so low? Vegas and the bettors must be still picturing CJ Stroud's disastrous playoff performance at New England. Look - this is simple: awesome young defense + improved running game + young WRs will get HOU at least 11 wins. [Optionally, ladder an o10.5 wins bet (+145)].

Anyone notice the collapse of the Tampa Bay Bucs halfway through last year? A 6-2 start was followed by a woeful 2-7 finish in which the Bucs aging defense couldn't stop anyone. They had a winless December against ATL, NO, CAR, and MIA to miss the playoffs. I don't see a way that the defense improves with the retirement of leader Lavonte David, a leaky secondary, and DT Vita Vea asking for a trade. The loss of Mike Evans at WR also hurts the offense.  I see 7 wins for this shaky group. [Optionally, ladder an u7.5 wins bet (+134)].

Jerry Jones will always tell you that this year's Cowboys will do great things - but I actually believe it this year.  The addition of Quinnen Williams and rookie Caleb Downs (and the loss of DC Matt Eberflus) should greatly improve a historically bad defense.  On offense DAL has one of the best young O-Lines in the game, a newfound stud RB in Javonte Williams and - you certainly know about Dak and the WRs. This is my best bet of these Team Wins picks ( a double-unit bet for me).

Much of what I wrote above for HOU applies here to the Seahawks as well. They featured a suffocating defense. They won the last 7 in the regular season. And oh yes with their 14-3 mark and #1 seed they ran the table to win SB LX.  And the rationale to chop their win total down to 10.5 is ... other teams, I guess.  The Rams are this years SuperBowl favorites, and division rivals SFO always are bettor favorites. I didn't see enough scary departures (yes, counting you Kenneth Walker) or aging faces to see less than 12 wins. 

[Optionally, ladder an o11.5 wins bet (+165)].

Yes, QB Jayden Daniels is amazing. But while the Commanders muddled through a painful 5-12 season with only some Daniels, it became clear to the world that the rest of the team lacked impact players on an aging roster. Washington looks like they need at least another year to stock up on defensive talent and key offensive pieces around Daniels. The training camp loss of Pro Bowl LT Laremy Tunsil makes a mediocre offensive line even more questionable as division foes DAL and NYG make solid improvements. A 1-5 or 0-6 division record is possible. Take the under.